News background & trading ideas for 18/03/2019

18 มี.ค. 2019

The previous week was marked by Brexit. There were a lot of events, but ultimately with no result. On Tuesday, Teresa May once again was defeated in Parliament - her plan to quit was rejected again. On Wednesday, albeit with a small margin, the Parliament voted against leaving the EU with no deal. And on Thursday they voted for a delay. In theory, the EU must agree to a postponement and the next round of negotiations should start. This is an approximate state of affairs today. However, if the Government succeeds in reaching an agreement with opponents from the Parliament, perhaps on this week will be another vote on the deal.

This week is interesting because of the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England. Moreover, on this week will be released important UK macroeconomic statistics: on Tuesday will be published data on the labor market, and on Wednesday - on consumer inflation, on Thursday - on retail sales.

Recall our plan to work with GBPUSD: we buy on the descents.

On Friday the oil market passed under the sign of fixing profits. But the fundamental background is still on the buying side. The latest data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil installations in the United States has been at a minimum since April 2018. Russia, meanwhile, reported on partial fulfillment of its obligations under OPEC +, stating that, compared to October 2018, Russia reduced production by 140K b / d, but promised to reach the target amount (recall this month) 228K.

Somehow surprised the Russian ruble, which sharply strengthened on Friday. We consider this phenomenon to be short-term and the result of the simultaneous operation of a number of fundamental triggers, ranging from high oil prices to the successful placement by the Ministry of Finance OFZ. The next portion of US sanctions, announced on Friday (the US Treasury added six individuals and eight companies from the Russian Federation to the sanctions list) was simply ridiculous against the market expectations. So, do not relax. We recommend using Friday ruble appreciation as an opportunity to sell it. Although, given the current situation in the market, its further local strengthening is quite likely. But so far all this does not affect on our basic recommendation on long-term sales of the ruble.

As for our other positions, we continue selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, with exception of the Japanese yen, which we are continuing to sell against the dollar. We are buying oil in the commodity market, we continue to look for points for buying gold on the intraday basis.