EUR/USD H4 Descending Triangle: Short Setup w/ 1:4RR
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The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.04306, showing a slight decline of -0.14% (-0.00148). The pair is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is typically a continuation pattern in a downward trend.
Key Technical Levels: - Resistance: 1.04659 (Key resistance level) - Support: 1.03197 (Current support level/PWL) - Value Area: Marked on the chart showing price consolidation
Pattern Analysis: The price action has formed a clear descending triangle with: - A flat bottom around 1.03197 - Declining tops, creating a downward sloping resistance line - Decreasing volume during consolidation (visible in the volume bars below)
Indicator Analysis: 1. Volume Profile shows: - Major value area between 1.04475 and 1.03197 - Point of Control (POC) appears to be around 1.04423 - Decreasing volume suggesting potential breakout incoming
Price Structure: - Currently trading below the PWH (Previous Week High) - Trading within the value area - Showing signs of bearish momentum with lower highs
Short-term Outlook: Given the descending triangle formation and the position of key technical levels, the setup appears bearish. The following factors support this view: 1. Price is testing the lower boundary of the value area 2. Declining volume during consolidation 3. Unable to break above 1.04659 resistance 4. Formation of lower highs
Risk/Reward Ratio: The setup offers approximately a 1:4.2 risk-to-reward ratio, which is favorable for a technical setup.
Key Levels to Watch: - Break below 1.03197 could accelerate selling pressure - Break above 1.04659 would invalidate the bearish setup - SSL levels at 1.03198 and 1.04225 acting as additional reference points
Caution: Traders should be aware of: - Potential weekend gaps as we're near market close - Any fundamental catalysts that could affect EUR/USD - The need for proper position sizing as indicated in the setup
This analysis suggests a bearish bias with clear invalidation levels and a favorable risk-reward ratio. However, proper risk management and confirmation of breakout direction are essential before entering any position.