EURNZD Short Play
ที่อัปเดต:
Entered a EUR/NZD short position @ 1.65296
Market sentiment is still shaky and will be volatile the next couple days with unknown doubts related to the upcoming COVID variant Omicron. I am still bearish on AUD/CHF regarding my previous analysis and although AUD and NZD tend to correlate well with each other, I am bullish on NZD given the recent monetary policy outlook. Increased OCR rates should equal higher yields on the long end of the curve or at least be stabilize over the next month or so.
EUR did receive a boost after the market dropped due to carry trade unwinding and money flowing back into EUR to cover the funding/short positions. Most G7 currencies are strong vs the USD today except EUR which shows of weakness in the EUR. If market sentiment does remain high and bullish on economic outlook then I believe EUR/NZD should drop.
Similar fractal shown based on the period from Aug 11 - Sept 13, 2021. If recent history is correct then EUR/NZD should drop to 1.600 (blue arrow direction).
Finally, similar moves in the DE10-NZ10 yields differentials. Large spikes in EUR/NZD currency with not so big spikes in the DE-NZ bonds should keep the drive the currency pair lower. See chart below.
My views only.
Market sentiment is still shaky and will be volatile the next couple days with unknown doubts related to the upcoming COVID variant Omicron. I am still bearish on AUD/CHF regarding my previous analysis and although AUD and NZD tend to correlate well with each other, I am bullish on NZD given the recent monetary policy outlook. Increased OCR rates should equal higher yields on the long end of the curve or at least be stabilize over the next month or so.
EUR did receive a boost after the market dropped due to carry trade unwinding and money flowing back into EUR to cover the funding/short positions. Most G7 currencies are strong vs the USD today except EUR which shows of weakness in the EUR. If market sentiment does remain high and bullish on economic outlook then I believe EUR/NZD should drop.
Similar fractal shown based on the period from Aug 11 - Sept 13, 2021. If recent history is correct then EUR/NZD should drop to 1.600 (blue arrow direction).
Finally, similar moves in the DE10-NZ10 yields differentials. Large spikes in EUR/NZD currency with not so big spikes in the DE-NZ bonds should keep the drive the currency pair lower. See chart below.
My views only.
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