InvestMate|EUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHINGðķðī
āļāļĩāđāļāļąāļāđāļāļ:
ðķðīEUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHING
ðķðīAnother post/update of my view on the eur/jpy pair. Link to previous post below:
ðķðīI will zoom in on the fundamentals:
ðķLooking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
ðīCompared to Japan where we are currently at 1.6% this is also quite average looking at past periods.
tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual
ðķ Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling - the latest reading on 3 November showed a drop to 6.6% compared to last reading of 6.7%.
ðī In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
ðķ A week ago, on 17 November to be precise, the inflation reading, which was 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on a slowdown in inflation in the coming months.
ðī In the case of Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained a 3% growth the market is betting that during the next data due on 17 November we could break this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2%.
ðķ Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last council meeting on 27 October to 2%.
ðī In Japan, of course, no change, the council kept rates at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, further moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November.
ðķðī Now that we know the fundamental environment, let's turn to the chart.
ðķðīToday brought nothing new. We attacked the 145.400 level again and there was an unsuccessful attempt to go down to yesterday's lows.
ðķðīAll due to low volatility on the Japanese. And uncertainty as to which way the Euro should go.
ðķðī Looking more broadly at the market and seeing that the Japanese on most pairs is preparing for a massive appreciation and the Euro on most pairs is waiting for the right moment to make a correction of uptrend.
ðķðīThese 2 separate events combined in a single chart could produce the massive price waterfall I wrote about in the previous post.
ðķðīOn the chart I determined a few things using technical analysis:
ðķðīFirstly I determined the upward channel we are currently in.
ðķðīThen I measured the entire downward wave using the fibo. We can see a triple attack on the 0.618 level which we failed to break out of.
ðķðīNext I measured the current upward impulse to find potential support zones.
ðķðīThen I measured the largest correction of this upward impulse in order to determine the 1:1 level of this correction.
ðķðīBy measuring the current uptrend impulse and the 1:1 correction, I found an interesting cluster of levels at 0.618 and 1:1 near 143.600
ðķðīIn the vicinity of the 0.618 level I determined a strong resistance zone. Due to the fact that the price repeatedly tried to break out of this level unsuccessfully
ðķðīThe scenario I am playing out is the eur/jpy pair descending to support levels as a result of the Bank of Japan intervening to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
ðķðī*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.
ðIf you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.ð
ðķðīAnother post/update of my view on the eur/jpy pair. Link to previous post below:
ðķðīI will zoom in on the fundamentals:
ðķLooking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
ðīCompared to Japan where we are currently at 1.6% this is also quite average looking at past periods.
tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual
ðķ Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling - the latest reading on 3 November showed a drop to 6.6% compared to last reading of 6.7%.
ðī In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
ðķ A week ago, on 17 November to be precise, the inflation reading, which was 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on a slowdown in inflation in the coming months.
ðī In the case of Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained a 3% growth the market is betting that during the next data due on 17 November we could break this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2%.
ðķ Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last council meeting on 27 October to 2%.
ðī In Japan, of course, no change, the council kept rates at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, further moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November.
ðķðī Now that we know the fundamental environment, let's turn to the chart.
ðķðīToday brought nothing new. We attacked the 145.400 level again and there was an unsuccessful attempt to go down to yesterday's lows.
ðķðīAll due to low volatility on the Japanese. And uncertainty as to which way the Euro should go.
ðķðī Looking more broadly at the market and seeing that the Japanese on most pairs is preparing for a massive appreciation and the Euro on most pairs is waiting for the right moment to make a correction of uptrend.
ðķðīThese 2 separate events combined in a single chart could produce the massive price waterfall I wrote about in the previous post.
ðķðīOn the chart I determined a few things using technical analysis:
ðķðīFirstly I determined the upward channel we are currently in.
ðķðīThen I measured the entire downward wave using the fibo. We can see a triple attack on the 0.618 level which we failed to break out of.
ðķðīNext I measured the current upward impulse to find potential support zones.
ðķðīThen I measured the largest correction of this upward impulse in order to determine the 1:1 level of this correction.
ðķðīBy measuring the current uptrend impulse and the 1:1 correction, I found an interesting cluster of levels at 0.618 and 1:1 near 143.600
ðķðīIn the vicinity of the 0.618 level I determined a strong resistance zone. Due to the fact that the price repeatedly tried to break out of this level unsuccessfully
ðķðīThe scenario I am playing out is the eur/jpy pair descending to support levels as a result of the Bank of Japan intervening to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
ðķðī*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.
ðIf you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.ð
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Re-attack on the resistance zone
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