EUR_CHF (315 Pips)

EUR/CHF closed at 0.93158 last week, marking the lowest low in 9 years. This significant drop indicates strong bearish pressure on the pair.

Fundamental Analysis
The Euro Area's final CPI reading for October is expected to show headline inflation rising from 1.7% to 2.0% YoY, while core inflation remains at 2.7% YoY [4]. This could provide some support for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to its 2% inflation target and plans to keep policy rates restrictive as necessary [4].

The Swiss Franc has seen increased demand recently, with USD/CHF falling 1% over the last couple of trading days [4]. This strength in the Franc could continue to put pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.

Technical Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair is currently under significant bearish pressure after breaking below the support zone between 0.9335 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the August upward move [1]. This breakdown has accelerated the active minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave (3) from May [1].

Key levels to watch:
- Support: 0.9250 (former strong support from January and August) [1]
- Resistance: 0.9335 (previous support level) [1].

The pair has decisively escaped a symmetric triangle pattern to the downside, breaking below a key horizontal support level [3]. This technical breakdown underscores the dominance of sellers in the current market environment.

Outlook for Next Week
Given the technical breakdown and the Franc's recent strength, the EUR/CHF pair is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the coming week. Traders should watch for a potential test of the 0.9250 support level [1], if EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9250 support level, the next major support level would likely be around 0.9000 (315 pips).

However, if the Euro receives a boost from the expected inflation data, we could see some upward movement. In this case, the 0.9335 level will be crucial as a break above could signal a short-term bullish reversal [2].

Traders should also monitor broader market sentiment and any unexpected economic data or central bank communications that could impact either currency. The safe-haven appeal of the Swiss Franc, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions, may continue to support its strength against the Euro [3].

Citations:
[1] fxpro.news/tech-analysis/eurchf-wave-analysis-21-november-2024-20241121/
[2] paxforex.org/forex-fundamental-analysis/eurchf-forecast-november-19th-2024
[3] axiory.com/analytics/technical-analysis/safe-haven-effect-swiss-franc-pressures-eur-chf-be
[4] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-19-november-2024/
[5] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-20-november-2024/
[6] youtube.com/watch?v=pBIwsaF5zUk
[7] ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html
[8] ictrading.com/blog/tuesday-19th-november-2024-technical-outlook-and-review/