EURAUD chart watch
ที่อัปเดต:
Mid term
- Retrace gaining ground, today will have retraced all of the bull move.
- EURAUD trades as risk asset, SPX recovered today and on its way to form a hammer on daily candle (hence rebound in EURAUD), IF SPX rallies, pair could fall further.
- As the PA in retrace slows, look to go long in one of the FIB retrace levels.
Long term favors BUY-
- Nordea Market calling for 1.605 target in eur/aud to quote- "EUR/USD: The 1.13 handle seems re-installed as the anchor of the pair and as we see a decent chance of rebound in the Euro area PMI this week, we think the short-term outlook for the EUR is starting to look a little more constructive. Due to the usual strong USD into year-end we opt to reflect our more constructive EUR view via long EUR/AUD targeting 1.6050."
e-markets.nordea.com/api/research/attachment/78350
- DE-AU 10Y spread tightening @ 219
- Trade war worries
- Australian GDP fail, housing market downturn, retail sales was as expected.
- EU econ data better recently but still worries of Brexit, French protest and Italy budget (BTP spread better at 284 versus 300 level)
- Retrace gaining ground, today will have retraced all of the bull move.
- EURAUD trades as risk asset, SPX recovered today and on its way to form a hammer on daily candle (hence rebound in EURAUD), IF SPX rallies, pair could fall further.
- As the PA in retrace slows, look to go long in one of the FIB retrace levels.
Long term favors BUY-
- Nordea Market calling for 1.605 target in eur/aud to quote- "EUR/USD: The 1.13 handle seems re-installed as the anchor of the pair and as we see a decent chance of rebound in the Euro area PMI this week, we think the short-term outlook for the EUR is starting to look a little more constructive. Due to the usual strong USD into year-end we opt to reflect our more constructive EUR view via long EUR/AUD targeting 1.6050."
e-markets.nordea.com/api/research/attachment/78350
- DE-AU 10Y spread tightening @ 219
- Trade war worries
- Australian GDP fail, housing market downturn, retail sales was as expected.
- EU econ data better recently but still worries of Brexit, French protest and Italy budget (BTP spread better at 284 versus 300 level)
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Retrace trade (short term) If price breaks 1.589, look to go short (4 lots with stop loss in the closing of the last 4 hr candle), take two lots profit equal to stop loss and two lots target 1.5730 (and adjust s/l accordingly)
Long term buy at 1.5630 depending on how fast we get there.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
- CORRECTION If price breaks 1.5780, look to go short (4 lots with stop loss in the closing of the last 4 hr candle), take two lots profit equal to stop loss and two lots target 1.5730 (and adjust s/l accordingly) Long term buy at 1.5630 depending on how fast we get there.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Additional notes - EUR/AUD correlation is -92.7 to AUD/USD and 78 with EUR/USD, meaning it moves more with AUD/USD. Currently AUD/USD is on its way to form an inverted hammer on daily, could signal a Temp end to AUD/USD downtrend if PA follows through it could mean a deeper correction in EUR/AUD
mataf.net/en/forex/tools/correlation
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Further confirmation of possible deeper correction based on correlation pairs -EUR/AUD highest correlation on daily-
AUD/USD - 92.7
EUR/USD - 78
GBP/AUD - 91.9
EUR/AUD is currently more correlated to GBP/AUD, gbp/aud down today for 247.
mataf.net/en/forex/tools/correlation
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Update This pair has further room to fall.Positive developments for AUD - improvement in trade talks, china reducing tariffs on car import, Westpac Consumer Sentiment just at .1%
Big negative for EUR is the French German yield spread widening to 47.6 highest since may
บันทึกช่วยจำ
PA bouncing bouncing off support -wait for break out confirmationบันทึกช่วยจำ
ECB bit dovish today.
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