Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on OCT 13 2022

The market fluctuated again yesterday, and the CPI data will be released tonight, and there may be a round of more significant fluctuations, depending on the difference between the CPI data and the expected value. As a reminder, the reasons for the high inflation this time are very complex and completely different from the past: there is not only the supply chain caused by the epidemic and trade sanctions but also the energy supply and demand imbalance caused by the war and the issuance of a large number of US dollars.

Among them, the supply chain issue has been improved a lot. However, the excellent employment rate in the United States is accompanied by trade sanctions against China; Secondly, regarding the energy supply, many differences and games can be seen from the recent North Stream pipeline bombing and the United States warning Saudi Arabia not to cut production. And energy supply issue is an essential link in this round of inflation and is not as controllable; Third, the issuance of the US dollar issue has the most significant impact and is relatively controllable.

As you can see, multiple factors leading to inflation overlap and affect each other, each with its hidden dangers. Therefore, it is very irrational in the current environment to bet in advance through the expectation of the data.

There is a point of view mentioned in yesterday's article that the current is the most challenging stage to make money, and the average investors tend to predict a direction and operate in a big way. This approach can indeed be obtained higher earnings in relatively clear environments such as a bull market or a bear market. Obviously, this is not the case at present. Therefore, reducing leverage, reducing positions, and lengthening the trading cycle may be suitable for the current market. The short-term market may be chaotic, but the long-term goal is relatively straightforward.