ETH breakout past 50MA overnight

26 ต.ค. 2022

I was planning on doing a more robust write up on ETH but the breakout of the falling wedge BTC made and therefore ETH made, has pressed my hand to start something a little sooner than intended (plus I'm meant to be on holiday atm)

** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how the stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my thoughts - please don't use this chart as financial advice

I will do a proper drill into ETH on my return, but the quick and dirty on things to look out for is;

• In recent days ETH rejected the $1250~ mark and very frequently too; this is a strong accumulation zone for the time being
  
• ETH blitz past its 9 day and 50 day moving average without hesitation or testing the MA
  
• There looks to be a 9MA crossover with 50MA up and coming if the swing up persists, which will be a very bullish signal
  
• DXY is forming a double or triple top (it's testing the 50MA currently) which could mean a move down for the index and thus a movement of investments from the dollar index to BTC (if that hasn’t already started happening)
  
• The next test for ETH movement will be the distribution zones (shown via the fib) at $1480 which is approx where we are currently and at $1800 (2.6 marker on the fib)
  
  Hope to provide a proper look into ETH soon, be safe though, the bears are still about and very strong in sentiment toward crypto; a reversal down is possible at any moment. Have your stop losses set to avoid getting caught up in a dump.
  
  Please remember this is not financial advice, dyor.
  
  For now, it's a pool swim and some cocktails for me.

27 ต.ค. 2022

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I've been baffled as to what caused the stall in this textbook breakout. After some digging, I initially just put it down to the DXY having a solid drop, but as DXY continued to fall, neither BTC nor ETH continued to climb - which was odd. I moved past it, putting it down to a lag in liquid exchange.

While scrolling through Twitter, I found some information that could help explain the stall further.

See, there was a recent hack that occurred on the platform FTX. An API traders could use to link external accounts was not secure. This was detailed to the platform managers some days before the hack - FTX ignored the call to action. Some days later, people took to Twitter complaining that they had lost large sums of money. FTX failed to respond publically and to the individuals complaining about the lost funds (many even had evidence of activity on their account that they themselves were not transacting). 150m was lost to the exploit.

As many do with situations like this, they run in fear of being impacted too. As such, a heavy liquidation on the FTX platform has taken place. This likely explains the quick leap up into a stall for BTC and ETH. To be clear, 1.2B in currency (almost 80% of FTX's holdings) was liquidated and moved off FTX. This means the rally we have experienced is an exhaustion rally from the liquidation of currency off of FTX. It likely is an unsustainable rally, and therefore a move down maybe coming.