Bearish Developments For Crypto - Why I'm Letting Go
ที่อัปเดต:
Above, you can see the ETH/USD chart on the left, and the TOTAL crypto market cap on the right. As I've talked about in my recent posts, from a fundamental standpoint I have been leaning bearish for some months, though I still considered the possibility of some new highs for the market. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to sustain a new high, and also failed to reclaim much dominance on that push up, which I suggested would be a bearish development. The TOTAL crypto market cap is now back below the highs from the summer after a failed high, and is in the process of breaking down from a long term uptrend. It has already broken down from the uptrend held since March, 2020 (orange on the below chart). 
TOTAL is also starting to break below the 9 month EMA, which generally holds price during bull markets. A close below could signal more downside, towards the 50 month MA (red).
Bitcoin failed to sustain a breakout from its recent downtrend, which I suggested could signal more downside. I was speculating on a short squeeze towards 58k but I was incorrect.
In addition, ETH has broken its own uptrend and broken down from a falling wedge, which is a pretty damn bearish. This means it can head pretty quickly back to Summer 2021 lows, as many other coins have already done. Breaking back into the wedge would be the only hope for bulls, and perhaps ETH can head for a retest of the broken uptrend above.
I think the macro environment is also pretty terrible. Inflation, rising rates, and the "never ending" bull market for tech stocks keep me very uneasy about holding assets like crypto for the next two years. Bitcoin itself appears to be losing its strength against traditional markets and other assets as well. Although the touch of this trendline against SPX was a buy signal this past summer, Bitcoin is really struggling to do better than the index, and is on the verge of testing levels from 2018 again. What happened in Kazakhstan also proves to potential Bitcoin believers that crypto would be largely useless in real global turmoil. In the past, I've pointed out that that material resources and cash are what people need to survive.
Bitcoin has also been performing terribly against TSLA since 2019. This chart gives us an idea of what a bear market could look like for Bitcoin/USD, should traditional markets truly suffer.
Then there's this incredibly obvious head and shoulders pattern, which everyone seems to be watching. Often these obvious patterns fail to actually break down, but I feel that too many people are still in "buy the dip" mode and expect this pattern to avoid a violent breakdown. The target would be summer lows.
These were enough signals for me to sell a chunk of my crypto yesterday. I held off on selling during the summer rout, since I figured Bitcoin would at least test $42-46k again. These signs of weakness convinced me to sell now, rather than earlier. A lot needed to happen for me to get to this point. Maybe that's a bullish signal ;)
Unfortunately with ETH, folks are convinced that it'll avoid serious downside because so many people are locked in staking. However, I expect the unlock to add sell pressure if we're in a full-blown bear market this year. I also think the high fees contributed to its inflated value, much like Bitcoin's high fees in 2017 contributed to the previous bubble. This is because only those with financial means can afford to buy NFT's on Ethereum, and only those with the means can participate in the ecosystem. This makes it a circle-jerk for the wealthy, and an easy way for people to get their attention sucked away from more meaningful things in life. This seemingly never-ending casino is a distraction. It certainly has been for me, when I could have been working on a graphic novel and creating more works of art. It's painful to think about how much time I could have spent doing those things, instead of staring at charts. In some ways, getting involved in this space is actually very inauthentic to who I am. But I've learned a lot - so I honestly don't regret my time in this market. My fascination with human behavior and collective psychology explains why I've stayed here so long, and will likely continue to post on occasion.
As I mentioned above, I have been fundamentally leaning bearish on crypto for some months, and I've spoken numerous times about how I have considered pulling some profit. I have continued to lose interest in the space, as I watch people desperately try to find the next new coin while whales profit massively off hype, with very little substance involved. I'm an artist and studying social work, so substance and positive change are important to me. While I see applications of blockchain technology eventually bringing about some positive change (in terms of digital ownership and ownership of data/attention), I don't think this space can run like this much longer and sustain. Arthur Hayes wrote another brilliant essay yesterday, and I really like how he describes financial markets as conduits for energy. For a long time, I've felt that this energy would be better used elsewhere---focusing on building a better MATERIAL world, not a VIRTUAL one. But alas, it seems that humanity has given up on itself to the point where it would rather live in a metaverse and create robots to supplant our existence and usefulness. I do not want to participate in that future. Seeing the recent ad for "Cryptoland" was the last straw for me. While I think universal trust is important for humanity to advance, I do regret to say I've lost my trust in this market. I'm at the point where I believe betting on enormous upside from here is betting on stupidity.
Now I love not taking things seriously, but when I'm planning for my future I don't feel comfortable putting my faith in this market in its present state. It seems that this cycle many were roped into buying shiny new projects with grand promises. This happened in 2017 as well, and most of those projects are now dead or in the process of dying. That includes some of the biggest hyped projects of the time. I'm honestly impressed Cardano even did as well as it did this cycle, considering I still have no idea what it's being used for. ADA is resting on its previous all-time high, so this could be a decent launchpad if the market manages to hold current levels, but it has a long way to fall should this support give in.
Here's an example of a newly hyped project that I think is likely to be dumped heavily on investors:
Here's what can easily happen to a lot of these projects, as it happened in 2018:
Now just for fun, and for transparency, here are the coins in my portfolio, and how the performed since I bought and sold. I still continue to hold all of them except NEO, which I sold off in its entirety. I still did better by not purchasing Bitcoin, and going for alts instead.
Ethereum (ETH) - bought between $103 and $215 in 2018/2019. Sold above $3200
Smartlands (SLT) - bought between $0.16 and $0.50 in 2018/2019. Sold above $7
VeChain (VET) - bought most between $0.003 and $0.004. Sold some at $0.20 earlier this year and more at $0.08 yesterday.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) - bought most between $0.04 and 0.07 and with occasional profits from SLT. Sold at $0.26
NANO (XNO) - bought most around $1-2, sold at $3. I love this project, but definitely one of my worst performers.
Litecoin (LTC) - bought initially at $32 in 2019. Sold at $135, then re-accumulated in 2021 at an average price of $145. Sold half at a loss at $132 yesterday. Fairly pointless venture, but at least I did well in 2019 with Litecoin.
NEO - bought most with an average cost of $6-7. Sold near $24. Had bought some with profits from VET in 2021, but this was a failed trade. Writing that one off. I sold all of it because although I believe it to be fundamentally strong, I think there are too many obstacles now preventing it from gaining back substantial market share.
So that's my crypto story so far. It hasn't ended, since I still own some coins. But I'm satisfied with my gains, and will likely sell more if the market manages to continue up from here. There are some bullish arguments (particularly for the long term), which I noted in my recent video. I think it's possible crypto avoids testing the 200 week MA for a long time and develops a sustainable uptrend. But in the medium term, the uptrends are broken. And I think people will become a lot more skeptical of this market once it does return to Earth. My hope is that people snap out of it, but the market can remain irrational for as long as we as humans remain irrational :)
On the bullish side, we could of course still get another ridiculous push for the market, and we could be close to bottom here. I still have some crypto in case that happens. Anything is possible. If my personal sentiment weren't so sour at this point, I would probably be buying now. But crypto is something that is supported by collective belief. Unfortunately my belief is waning.
This is not meant as financial advice - this is simply me cataloguing my own journey in this market. It's been a crazy 4 years. All I can say is I'm glad I've made it out with some profit. I might even decide to trade actively when I have the time, using the tools I've learned.
-Victor Cobra
TOTAL is also starting to break below the 9 month EMA, which generally holds price during bull markets. A close below could signal more downside, towards the 50 month MA (red).
Bitcoin failed to sustain a breakout from its recent downtrend, which I suggested could signal more downside. I was speculating on a short squeeze towards 58k but I was incorrect.
In addition, ETH has broken its own uptrend and broken down from a falling wedge, which is a pretty damn bearish. This means it can head pretty quickly back to Summer 2021 lows, as many other coins have already done. Breaking back into the wedge would be the only hope for bulls, and perhaps ETH can head for a retest of the broken uptrend above.
I think the macro environment is also pretty terrible. Inflation, rising rates, and the "never ending" bull market for tech stocks keep me very uneasy about holding assets like crypto for the next two years. Bitcoin itself appears to be losing its strength against traditional markets and other assets as well. Although the touch of this trendline against SPX was a buy signal this past summer, Bitcoin is really struggling to do better than the index, and is on the verge of testing levels from 2018 again. What happened in Kazakhstan also proves to potential Bitcoin believers that crypto would be largely useless in real global turmoil. In the past, I've pointed out that that material resources and cash are what people need to survive.
Bitcoin has also been performing terribly against TSLA since 2019. This chart gives us an idea of what a bear market could look like for Bitcoin/USD, should traditional markets truly suffer.
Then there's this incredibly obvious head and shoulders pattern, which everyone seems to be watching. Often these obvious patterns fail to actually break down, but I feel that too many people are still in "buy the dip" mode and expect this pattern to avoid a violent breakdown. The target would be summer lows.
These were enough signals for me to sell a chunk of my crypto yesterday. I held off on selling during the summer rout, since I figured Bitcoin would at least test $42-46k again. These signs of weakness convinced me to sell now, rather than earlier. A lot needed to happen for me to get to this point. Maybe that's a bullish signal ;)
Unfortunately with ETH, folks are convinced that it'll avoid serious downside because so many people are locked in staking. However, I expect the unlock to add sell pressure if we're in a full-blown bear market this year. I also think the high fees contributed to its inflated value, much like Bitcoin's high fees in 2017 contributed to the previous bubble. This is because only those with financial means can afford to buy NFT's on Ethereum, and only those with the means can participate in the ecosystem. This makes it a circle-jerk for the wealthy, and an easy way for people to get their attention sucked away from more meaningful things in life. This seemingly never-ending casino is a distraction. It certainly has been for me, when I could have been working on a graphic novel and creating more works of art. It's painful to think about how much time I could have spent doing those things, instead of staring at charts. In some ways, getting involved in this space is actually very inauthentic to who I am. But I've learned a lot - so I honestly don't regret my time in this market. My fascination with human behavior and collective psychology explains why I've stayed here so long, and will likely continue to post on occasion.
As I mentioned above, I have been fundamentally leaning bearish on crypto for some months, and I've spoken numerous times about how I have considered pulling some profit. I have continued to lose interest in the space, as I watch people desperately try to find the next new coin while whales profit massively off hype, with very little substance involved. I'm an artist and studying social work, so substance and positive change are important to me. While I see applications of blockchain technology eventually bringing about some positive change (in terms of digital ownership and ownership of data/attention), I don't think this space can run like this much longer and sustain. Arthur Hayes wrote another brilliant essay yesterday, and I really like how he describes financial markets as conduits for energy. For a long time, I've felt that this energy would be better used elsewhere---focusing on building a better MATERIAL world, not a VIRTUAL one. But alas, it seems that humanity has given up on itself to the point where it would rather live in a metaverse and create robots to supplant our existence and usefulness. I do not want to participate in that future. Seeing the recent ad for "Cryptoland" was the last straw for me. While I think universal trust is important for humanity to advance, I do regret to say I've lost my trust in this market. I'm at the point where I believe betting on enormous upside from here is betting on stupidity.
Now I love not taking things seriously, but when I'm planning for my future I don't feel comfortable putting my faith in this market in its present state. It seems that this cycle many were roped into buying shiny new projects with grand promises. This happened in 2017 as well, and most of those projects are now dead or in the process of dying. That includes some of the biggest hyped projects of the time. I'm honestly impressed Cardano even did as well as it did this cycle, considering I still have no idea what it's being used for. ADA is resting on its previous all-time high, so this could be a decent launchpad if the market manages to hold current levels, but it has a long way to fall should this support give in.
Here's an example of a newly hyped project that I think is likely to be dumped heavily on investors:
Here's what can easily happen to a lot of these projects, as it happened in 2018:
Now just for fun, and for transparency, here are the coins in my portfolio, and how the performed since I bought and sold. I still continue to hold all of them except NEO, which I sold off in its entirety. I still did better by not purchasing Bitcoin, and going for alts instead.
Ethereum (ETH) - bought between $103 and $215 in 2018/2019. Sold above $3200
Smartlands (SLT) - bought between $0.16 and $0.50 in 2018/2019. Sold above $7
VeChain (VET) - bought most between $0.003 and $0.004. Sold some at $0.20 earlier this year and more at $0.08 yesterday.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) - bought most between $0.04 and 0.07 and with occasional profits from SLT. Sold at $0.26
NANO (XNO) - bought most around $1-2, sold at $3. I love this project, but definitely one of my worst performers.
Litecoin (LTC) - bought initially at $32 in 2019. Sold at $135, then re-accumulated in 2021 at an average price of $145. Sold half at a loss at $132 yesterday. Fairly pointless venture, but at least I did well in 2019 with Litecoin.
NEO - bought most with an average cost of $6-7. Sold near $24. Had bought some with profits from VET in 2021, but this was a failed trade. Writing that one off. I sold all of it because although I believe it to be fundamentally strong, I think there are too many obstacles now preventing it from gaining back substantial market share.
So that's my crypto story so far. It hasn't ended, since I still own some coins. But I'm satisfied with my gains, and will likely sell more if the market manages to continue up from here. There are some bullish arguments (particularly for the long term), which I noted in my recent video. I think it's possible crypto avoids testing the 200 week MA for a long time and develops a sustainable uptrend. But in the medium term, the uptrends are broken. And I think people will become a lot more skeptical of this market once it does return to Earth. My hope is that people snap out of it, but the market can remain irrational for as long as we as humans remain irrational :)
On the bullish side, we could of course still get another ridiculous push for the market, and we could be close to bottom here. I still have some crypto in case that happens. Anything is possible. If my personal sentiment weren't so sour at this point, I would probably be buying now. But crypto is something that is supported by collective belief. Unfortunately my belief is waning.
This is not meant as financial advice - this is simply me cataloguing my own journey in this market. It's been a crazy 4 years. All I can say is I'm glad I've made it out with some profit. I might even decide to trade actively when I have the time, using the tools I've learned.
-Victor Cobra
บันทึกช่วยจำ
For Bitcoin to look remotely bullish again, I think it needs to break this downtrend and NOT fail at the 46-48k zone. It would need to be a pretty strong move. Unfortunately, this selloff seems to be mostly lack of buyer pressure, and not quite as much aggressive shorting - funding stays relatively neutral. Even on the lows from today, the volume spike did not eclipse the volume from the initial drop to 
42K, and Bitcoin is having difficulty even maintaining that level. For bulls, price needs to break and hold above the downtrend and 42k. บันทึกช่วยจำ
Bitcoin would also need to break and hold the 200 MA on the 4H (teal). This is usually an early reversal signal when it happens, which is why the Christmas rally was an effective bull trap. Price hasn't sustained above this moving average since November. บันทึกช่วยจำ
If today's candle can close green, that would be somewhat promising. บันทึกช่วยจำ
For ETH, we could see a relief rally back towards $3400-3500 บันทึกช่วยจำ
There's the relief bounce. A lot needs to happen for crypto to look bullish again in the medium term. If ETH can clear both these resistances, I'll start looking at the possibility of new highs for the market. Still, alts are outperforming Bitcoin on this bounce, which still does not give me confidence. บันทึกช่วยจำ
A bearish development that did NOT happen over the summer '21 slump was the 9 week EMA crossing over the 50. The last time this happened was around the time of the March 2020 crash. The prior time was during the 2018 bear market. Since Bitcoin is already well below the 50 week MA, it needs a substantial push up to avoid a longer term bear market, I think. บันทึกช่วยจำ
Sold a little more ETH at $3380.
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