Another ETH dip Inbound

17 มี.ค.

Lorentzian Still showing negative with upward movement. All indicators still showing negative probabilities. Downward pressure small but still present. Bounce off of 3400 due to volume profile. Next leg down at previous target of 3260 for reentry.



If 32000 doesn't hold Current medium term trend broken then the next step down is at the .68, 2/1 Gann that is also supported by volume profile. Large Negative nodes still exist at these levels and the price will naturally fill them in over time. Major support at the 2500 Area and below.


If ETH holds 3260 current trend continues and indicates large Bull Flag, If it falls to 2500 Bull theory is not invalidated, however time frame to New ETH extends due to new higher levels of resistance from current Bag Holders.

Entry Target:3260
Stoploss:2900
Target 1: 4241
Target 2: 4941
Risk/Reward: 5.01
Probability: 96.08% (1000 days data, 2000 simulations, No black swans)
Target Date: 04/16/2024


Elliot correction wave possibly goes 1 of 2 ways, if 3200 holds and breaks and holds 4066, Continuation confirmed. If denied at that level, I will liquidate as Elliot waves indicating Head and shoulders pattern with a reentry at 2627.


Possible HS move:
Short
Entry:3993 after rejection
Exit: 2678 off of major support
Risk/Reward: 5.18 +1309 P/ETH

Then Reentry to Long Position:
Entry:2678
TP1: 3530
TP2: 4004
TP3: 4941
Stoploss: Standard 10% Trailing stop loss determined by average trend daily possible reversable loss.
Risk/Reward:10.5

Bearish and Bullish are just be adjectives. Be both.

-Soup Kitchen Day Manager

18 มี.ค.

บันทึก

Break outside of falling wedge may act as bull trap.


Looking on the one hour the ETH price broke out of its current short term down trend, however was unable to break through the support now flipped to resistance at 3657, which was a high volume node for the current trend. This is more likely than not a false breakout.

1:This last bounce has had very low volume which is usually indicative of continued bearish action due to a lack of buyers at current levels or uncertainty in the product. The price goes up due to slight reprieve in sell orders from initial shorts. This is typically followed by another panic drop from undisciplined traders an bullish short term traders Stop losses being triggered.

2:Bullish momentum falling, meaning even the few people buying the dip are starting to see the price not move in a promising direction.

3.KDJ at 48 still indicating slightly higher probability of continuation

4. Historically the most volatile time for crypto statistically is midnight on Sundays going into Monday.


5: Lorentzian still clocking -8 per hour even though on that level the price is above the trend line. Indicating upward motion is not strong

6: secondary rising wedge broken meaning price will retest the resistance at 3650

Short term Hypothesis:
ETH to reject at 3650 with a -3.25% price action by 1AM PST


Price to retest 3400 by EOD 3/18/24

19 มี.ค.

บันทึก

update from last nights prediction, 3400 test still likely.

19 มี.ค.

บันทึก

More negative motion to come. May move price target to 3290 instead of 3260. Waiting to see strength of sell orders at lower 3300 block. Large positive volume profile. Overall may be setting up for a reverse head and shoulders which on 4 hour and daily will be a cup and Handle

Picture below has explanations of which indicators used to judge direction and the strength and resistance of trend lines

19 มี.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Will update with details later today

21 มี.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Called the shoulder on the spot off by a dollar. However i did miss the drop to 3K. That wasn't the plan though. If your going to trade, stick to the plan. Deviation leads to emotional decisions.
Alright my play on this Potential RHS
If shorterm Declination at 3520 is broken i will sell at 3610, if rejected i will sell at 3500 and buy right back in with a sell again at 3383. The rebuy is to try to make some money back up through Tax Loss Harvesting.

Second trade will be possibly from the 3394 area, with a sell again at the old trend line of 3758.


notes for current short term hypothesis on the Snip

Flag Hypothesis definitely still in play for for the Bulls as the dip did not close under the 50% retracement. Above shows the Gann Box timing


Lorentzian showing a nice recovery back to +8 a candle with the average flipped back to green Indicating a buy. Nadaraya-Watson smoothers showing upwards momentum. MA curling back up.

11 Week forecast probability based on 2000 Simulations prediction on 62% win rate
18%% of lows down to 2250 come by Jul 8th
30% chance of reaching 5212 by July 8th
28% chance of hitting 6928 by July 8th

I will start a new post when after I close out current trade.
-Soup Kitchen Management

21 มี.ค.

บันทึก

^^ Snip of the last prediction of probability

2 เม.ย.

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

Forgot to update trade. closed out at 3610 about a week ago hit my target on the broken trend theory. Will start another post soon. Very good profit on this trade. Happy hunting,

-The soup kitchen night manager