THE BIG FLIP - ETHUSD on the back of ETHBTC
ที่อัปเดต:
If you have been following my post ETHUSD - Q1 2018 best buy backed by history and ETHUSD to enter large leg 3 impulse driven by reversal on ETHBTC , you'll see that I am very bullish ETH because of where I see it trading vs BTC over the coming 90 days. I tend to go to BTC during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best out of all the coins during corrections. This time I kept the balance between ETH and BTC about 50/50 and some cash. I am therefore waiting for the right time to move back over to ETH. You'll see from my post BTCUSD - A wall of resistance gradually being knocked down that I think we are decreasing the likelihood of BTC retracing to 6k. I am therefore reviewing when I should start swapping my BTC to ETH.
The main question I am asking myself is whether we are still in wave 3 (up to around 0.19) or entering the corrective wave 4 (down to around 0.08). More details here:
ETHUSD growth from ETHBTC history. Have we completed wave 3?
We are currently in a very interesting place. On the larger timeframe (TM) we are in a bull run and are creating a bull flag. On the shorter TF, since 1 Feb, we are in a correction creating a bear flag.
My plan
Whilst I have a bias on ETHBTC medium term, I do not want to guess if we are in wave 3 or wave 4. Usually the longer term horizon wins out, but that doesn't mean it will this time. So I wait for the trend to be confirmed.
Still in wave 3
- We move up from here, rejecting the bear flag. I will enter a trade assuming we will continue the upward leg and eventual breakout of the bull flag. The target for this, based on the height of the flag pole, would be my wave 3 target from my separate historic analysis here. This would also coincided with the magic flipping figure of 0.173 which would probably be a good place to retrace in wave 4. I love it when TA converges!
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line. I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.
In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
The main question I am asking myself is whether we are still in wave 3 (up to around 0.19) or entering the corrective wave 4 (down to around 0.08). More details here:
ETHUSD growth from ETHBTC history. Have we completed wave 3?
We are currently in a very interesting place. On the larger timeframe (TM) we are in a bull run and are creating a bull flag. On the shorter TF, since 1 Feb, we are in a correction creating a bear flag.
My plan
Whilst I have a bias on ETHBTC medium term, I do not want to guess if we are in wave 3 or wave 4. Usually the longer term horizon wins out, but that doesn't mean it will this time. So I wait for the trend to be confirmed.
Still in wave 3
- We move up from here, rejecting the bear flag. I will enter a trade assuming we will continue the upward leg and eventual breakout of the bull flag. The target for this, based on the height of the flag pole, would be my wave 3 target from my separate historic analysis here. This would also coincided with the magic flipping figure of 0.173 which would probably be a good place to retrace in wave 4. I love it when TA converges!
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line. I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.
In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Looks like we are heading towards one of these two options, most likely the 1D 50EMA:Still in wave 3
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line . I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.
In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Update posted here
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