ETC.usd has been Strong but is bounce Done or will Break Out ?

4 ม.ค. 2020

ETC plot to map nearby Support and Resistance Zones.
It has enjoyed much buoyancy even while BTC was diving.
Now it is at first of three progressively stronger resistances.

The bounce thus far looks "Corrective" more so than "Impulsive".
Corrective as in overlapping waves of roughly equal amplitude.
Impulsive would have a very long "wave 3" and no overlaps.

This could be a "Buy-the-Dip" coin soon, but am not buying here.
Break of resistance and retest with a "Ping" is worth a shot at buying.
Aggressive bears might short upon fall from Grey "decision zone".

The benefits of my Precise Zone maps are:
- Exact entry points and particular behavior becomes emotion-less entry.
- Tight Stop Loss acceptable. If a zone breaks by even a little, it will go to next one.


Previous ETC analysis looking for a bounce (caught a 10% gain):

5 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

PING

Just hit "Major Resistance" ETC has been leading the crypto bounce and now the break out.

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5 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

CheckPoint 2? "Sir Yes SIR"

Nice breakout and run to the next checkpoint, "Major Resistance" I expect some sideways here and perhaps a small pullback.
But this does look like it will hit the "VERY Strong Resistance" just above $5 round.
This would be a good place to "Sizzle" against the ceiling for a few hours.

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Zoom IN (5 min): Hit that zone quite precisely, and ALSO of note is the little pullback and what it Pinged It pinged one of the fibs used to plot these zones.

Here is that fib from above, in its entirety, and the Impulse that birthed it This fib has been confirmed two MORE times with this move, so my confidence in it has increased proportionately.

Based on the ADDED importance of that fib from above, I have adjusted the resistance zone in question

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IN CONCLUSION: $ 5.0777 - 5.0894 is the next (and possibly final) target.

Will it get there? Dont know, but I can say two things:
- IF we break above this zone, we SHOULD hit the next zone
- IF we hit next zone, I will CLOSE some longs and move trailing Stop below current zone.

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5 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

ZONE UPDATE

Just noticed another important clue, this Purple Fib with the THICK lines That one accounts for the previous leg up, and its fib retracements.
KEY is the EXTENSION -0.236 (or 1.236 the normal way I do fibs) and the clean PING on it.

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Based on the Fib and ping of -.236 extension, we can assume the -.382 and -.618 will relevant as well: Thus I have adjusted the next target zone as described in snapshot.

If we get to that zone and look to have some fuel left, then we can map a zone around that purple -.618.
But until then, I am assuming $5.044/77 will the top. If not, I will have new clues to project with.

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5 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

Approaching the Adjusted Resistance zone from last update just above. "The Tide is coming IN" as in most coins are getting bids.
So I think we will hit that zone soon.
Reaction there will be very telling.

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6 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

Max Target HIT

Here we are at the top band, the "VERY Strong Resistance" zone

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Zoom IN (3 min) to see the zone in detail Clearly this zone has "Gravity".
Price acting like a Comet that just flew past a large Star, and is being captured into orbit.
Lets see where it goes from here, down looks easier than up from here.

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8 ม.ค. 2020

บันทึก

Another Top Nailed.

The "VERY Strong" Resistance zone was indeed the top sure there was a little bit of overshoot or "bull trap" action.

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Zoom IN (15 min) for a closer look at that "Very Strong" Resistance zone. Shows it WAS indeed the exact top, as confirmed by the 2 Pings shown by blue arrows.
There was some overshoot at first,
then the wave oscillated around the zone.
until it Pinged both boundaries and boom.

Such a pair of rejections from subsequently lower fibs is ALMOST ALWAYS a sign of reversal.

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Zoom OUT (34 min) to see the entire last wave, and how the pre-mapped zones are PRECISELY relevant ALSO the blue arrow points to a recent Ping on top boundary of that zone.
Leading to conclusion that odds are we go lower, but to where?

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Zoom IN again (5 min) and putting some EW structure on it and fading the red zones for clarity: It is POSSIBLE that our ABC correction is done.

Zoom OUT (2 h) to see the entire picture again with that ABC in place: Another reason the abc COULD be done.
It will have ended at a perfectly logical place.

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BUT, it is also possible that we see an ABCDE correction, maybe like this And THAT would make perfect sense as well:
Return to the "Decsion Zone" to gauge the market sentiment.
I am leaning towards this possibility as being most likely.

It is ALSO possible that we see a much deeper correction something like this: ie: Bull Run could be DONE.
For that be valid, we should see a new Fib Rhythm developing in the pullback waves.
There is NO mew Fib Rhythm yet (I tried a bunch of placements) AND we are still following the previous Fibs.
So once again I think the previous possibility is more likely that this one.

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In SUMMARY:
- Topping process was EXACTLY as expected, with two distinct Pings to define both bounds of that resistance zone .
- Pullback thus far looks more like Profit Taking (it is still following the bull Fibs) than Shorting action (no new Fib yet).
- So my current lean is towards another leg down, to our original "Decision Zone", and then see "whats what".

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