Morning Update: Tracking the bottom

13 ต.ค. 2022

As you know we are patiently awaiting the bottom in the markets. Unless we move up today in purple 4, we should be heading into the 3400's very soon. I will not expand on my analysis as we've discussed the SP500 Futures at great length.

However, this morning's update is more about making 2 very clear points.

1) Whether Crypto and other risk assets are leading or trailing the US Market overall. One tell we're putting in a meaningful bottom is Tier-1 crypto should make new lows. The key word is should....as I do not know if their leading or lagging the market.

2) THIS IS NOT THE BOTTOM IN THE US MARKETS. ANY RALLY WE GET WILL BE CONSIDERED A B-WAVE BASED ON THE LOSS OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE. I AM INCREASINGLY BECOMING CONVINCED WE'RE IN OUR SUPERCYCLE WAVE IV. That means this WILL take years to reconcile before we move into a new bull market to cap off our super-cycle wave V. That doesn't mean there will not be many opportunities to go long and short. Suffice to say by and large price will be contained. I will write on this impending B wave were about to enter later as it will be tricky with a lot of chop.

Lastly I am standing by to open my corresponding short put order on the SPX. Suffice to say the temporary hedge I establish 2 weeks with my sale of 3950 calls is by and large worthless, and it appears I will keep all the premium of $4,600 I generated for a 10% profit.

You can re-read my trade details here.

Best to all,

Chris