ES daily 03/01: bottomed already?

2 มี.ค. 2022

Yesterday I mentioned two possible paths, and obviously market took the one with more whipsaw, which is pretty common now. So Sunday night drop is (a) of (2), rally till last night is (b) of (2), and the drop today is (c) of (2). Since there is no clear 5 wave down structure, or clear bottoming confirmation, and we did not reach 100% fib extension in this (c) wave, I tend to think it's not complete yet and we will drop further more tonight or tomorrow toward 4240~4260 range. But the main direction is upside, and we should wrap up whatever left in this (c) wave, and start to rally hard pretty soon. Please noted that Ukraine situation is still not done yet, and there is Powell testimony tomorrow and Thursday, NFP Friday, CPI next week, and Fed meeting in about 2 weeks. So lots of catalysts, and most likely the rally won't be a straight path, maybe not impulsive, but lots of big swing back and forth. But generally I would be looking up in the next 1.5~2 weeks.