/ES undergoing a character change?

It's indisputable that the ES is under the 50 and 200 MAs making the macro trend a "Stage 4" decline as defined by Stan Weinstein.

However, there are reasons to believe that the market is undergoing a character change with its break of the most recent downward trend line. It could be a rally (either a bear market bounce or a return to our regularly scheduled climb higher) or the development of a head and shoulders pattern.

Of course, these bullish assumptions are null and void below $3805.