ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave Analysis

Overview: in the update of Oct. 14th, I saw three possible scenarios:
1) Wave c of (III),
2) Wave b of (III),
3) Wave b of Z of (B)
being under development.
In the update of yesterday, I saw scenario 1 being the most likely.

Update: with this price action, scenario 2 is ruled out. At the moment, I am putting 60% probability on scenario 3 and 40% on scenario 1, based on the wave structure and the fact that we have broken out of the downward trendline. 3820 is the invalidation point for scenario 1, until then and with the volatility expected from earning reports, I would consider both scenarios as being possible. Overall, even if the 3rd scenario becomes our main count I don't expect a huge rally.