Full Gameplan For Monday Dec 2nd
Plan for Monday
**Supports:**
• Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820.
• Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828.
**Resistances:**
• Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78.
• Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264.
**Market Context and Strategy**
Current Position:
I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with.
Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open:
1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery.
2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy.
3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move.
Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week.
**Bull Case for Monday:**
The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include:
1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength.
2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs.
Upside targets:
• Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100.
Structure to watch:
• A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation.
**Bear Case for Monday:**
There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if:
1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake.
2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it.
**Key to trading breakdowns:**
• Do not chase. Look for:
• A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or
• A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in.
• If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels.
My Short Entry Strategy:
Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group
**Summary for Monday:**
A light trading day with the following key takeaways:
• Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+.
• Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower.
Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
**Supports:**
• Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820.
• Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828.
**Resistances:**
• Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78.
• Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264.
**Market Context and Strategy**
Current Position:
I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with.
Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open:
1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery.
2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy.
3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move.
Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week.
**Bull Case for Monday:**
The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include:
1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength.
2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs.
Upside targets:
• Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100.
Structure to watch:
• A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation.
**Bear Case for Monday:**
There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if:
1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake.
2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it.
**Key to trading breakdowns:**
• Do not chase. Look for:
• A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or
• A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in.
• If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels.
My Short Entry Strategy:
Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group
**Summary for Monday:**
A light trading day with the following key takeaways:
• Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+.
• Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower.
Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
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