US CPI week for the DXY

It has been a topsy turvy week for the dollar after the week opened with news of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from the US as well as a 10% import duty on Chinese goods. The DXY spiked to a high of 109.9 before closing the week marginally lower at 108.1. The weaker than expected US NFP print however and surprisingly provided support for the DXY. This week’s price action is indicative that the ABC corrective wave has run its course and that another leg higher towards 112 is on the cards for the DXY.

The critical support range is the blue range between 107.2 and 107.5. As long as the DXY remains above this range and maintain levels above the 50-day MA at 107.8 there is nothing stopping the DXY from moving higher as the dollar milkshake theory continues to suck the DXY higher.

A break below 107.2 will however invalidate the idea and allow the DXY to drop onto the 200-day MA level of 104.8.

It is CPI week for the DXY and a stronger than expected CPI print will allow the DXY to regain its momentum and commence the start of another leg higher for the index. The US CPI print for January, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. Inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the DXY packing and making its way to 110 and 112 thereafter since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.