Market Outlook Jan 31--->Feb 4th $SPY

31 ม.ค. 2022

Breakdown of Each chart
Top left - S&P 500 / General market
Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector
Top right- XLF / Financial sector
Bottom right- Dollar index

The Beijing Winter Olympics are almost here, shadowed by boycotts, fear of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and of course the coronavirus. There’s been no shortage of issues for other nations to protest about, from the case of the missing tennis star to Beijing’s comprehensive effort to snuff out free speech and a free press in Hong Kong. But the biggest source of ire from the West and elsewhere has been China’s detention and treatment of more than a million Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The presence of thousands of foreign athletes from countries that value free speech may be risky for President Xi Jinping, who seeks to cement (maybe lifetime) control over China with a third term. Avoiding controversy could be key. As for athletes, keep an eye on Eileen Gu, China’s American-born star.

Cryptocurrencies won’t go up just because they’re going mainstream, at least according to Goldman Sachs. There’s growing concern about criminal activity in the digital asset market, too, while regulators wonder whether 18% yields on crypto savings accounts might be too tempting. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be a fan of crypto mining, but memories of 2018 are sparking fears among the Bitcoin faithful.

Biden has been saying that his economic plan is working, and America’s GDP, record job growth and rising wages arguably support his case. But consumer confidence has yet to reflect that, with supply chain issues and (relatedly) the “I” word being all the rage. Many economists have predicted inflation will fall to 3% as the year progresses, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans are part of that. But others see inflation being stickier.

An omicron subvariant appears to be even more contagious than the original fast-spreading strain, U.K. health authorities said, though vaccine booster shots remain an effective shield. The new version is already in dozens of countries, including across America. Data from contact-tracing shows the subvariant, BA.2, spreads more frequently in households, where the rate of transmission is 13.4%, compared to 10.3% for the original omicron. In the U.S., some 60 million households have availed themselves of free Covid-19 tests being distributed by a Biden administration program. A drug developed by Merck showed activity versus omicron in six lab studies, raising confidence it may be useful in battling the variant. While the initial omicron wave has peaked in some places, worldwide it continues to infect millions daily. There were 3.5 million new confirmed infections and 10,200 Covid-related deaths on Thursday alone. Over the past two years, there have been 364 million confirmed cases and 5.6 million deaths , though the actual numbers are likely much higher.

Airlines are avoiding much of Ukrainian airspace as Russia continues to mass troops and equipment on that nation’s borders, stirring global fears of another unprovoked attack on its neighbor. Many carriers have largely avoided overflights since 2014 following the deaths of 298 people from 10 countries—including the Netherlands, Indonesia and Australia—when a Russian-made missile downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine. An international probe concluded Moscow-backed separatists who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since Russia annexed Crimea were behind the mass killing. Russia has denied any role, though Australia and the Netherlands accused the Kremlin of complicity. Meanwhile, the U.S. is calling for a United Nations Security Council meeting in which Russia would be asked to explain its moves toward Ukraine, a session that may evoke memories of a 1962 UN meeting following the discovery of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba . Ukraine’s leaders, for their part, appear less worried that an attack is coming.