DXY US Dollar Index ABCD
Daily DXY looks like a larger ABCD (orange) and a smaller ABCD (green) with 100% targets for D at 98.03 and 97.97 respectively.
Last Thursday's high achieved 85% of the larger CD target and 62% of the smaller CD target so far.
97.70 is clear resistance from December, keeping price below this level, last week. However, there is a rising trend channel that could mark a price target in the 98.00-20 area. I've recently drawn two previous daily trendlines/channels on EURUSD and USDJPY, and both hit the trendline with less than 10% error (based on total most recent price high/low swing), so we'll see if 3rd time is the charm.
I'm expecting an attempt at another bullish extension. Might get a weak and slower higher high, which will cause a rising trendline break and appear as a divergence on every oscillator indicator (MACD, RSI, etc etc).
If the extension effort fizzles early, we may see a contracting triangle pattern (inside bar pattern) instead.
This is looking like just a pullback so far. We're probably easing into a trading range for consolidation before attempting a bullish breakout up towards the daily (brown) trendline, then the weekly (light green) trendline.
Overall, DXY is in a larger uptrend that is itself a retrace back up to my monthly target zone of 98.80-103.82 (major prior monthly range top, 101.30 is middle of that range so 101.25-50 would be my tighter DXY target).
On monthly, you can see DXY previously made a lower low, so I'm expecting roughly parity to be the lower high, and if everything plays out textbook perfect, DXY will get kicked in the nuts. Downside target after that would be prior monthly low of 88.25, but we shall see. Never grow overly fond of a directional bias or thesis. The only direction the market goes is the direction it goes, no matter what you believe or want.
Last Thursday's high achieved 85% of the larger CD target and 62% of the smaller CD target so far.
97.70 is clear resistance from December, keeping price below this level, last week. However, there is a rising trend channel that could mark a price target in the 98.00-20 area. I've recently drawn two previous daily trendlines/channels on EURUSD and USDJPY, and both hit the trendline with less than 10% error (based on total most recent price high/low swing), so we'll see if 3rd time is the charm.
I'm expecting an attempt at another bullish extension. Might get a weak and slower higher high, which will cause a rising trendline break and appear as a divergence on every oscillator indicator (MACD, RSI, etc etc).
If the extension effort fizzles early, we may see a contracting triangle pattern (inside bar pattern) instead.
This is looking like just a pullback so far. We're probably easing into a trading range for consolidation before attempting a bullish breakout up towards the daily (brown) trendline, then the weekly (light green) trendline.
Overall, DXY is in a larger uptrend that is itself a retrace back up to my monthly target zone of 98.80-103.82 (major prior monthly range top, 101.30 is middle of that range so 101.25-50 would be my tighter DXY target).
On monthly, you can see DXY previously made a lower low, so I'm expecting roughly parity to be the lower high, and if everything plays out textbook perfect, DXY will get kicked in the nuts. Downside target after that would be prior monthly low of 88.25, but we shall see. Never grow overly fond of a directional bias or thesis. The only direction the market goes is the direction it goes, no matter what you believe or want.
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