Another 48h - DXY Weekly Low During US Unemployment Rate Release

2024/12/06
Another 48h - DXY Weekly Low During US Unemployment Rate Release
“fiscal policy weakness in france & political weakness in germany!
but the eur is holding up truly well for that? dxy weak? inst it?”



Without a government, over-indebted, with a blocked parliament: that was and is the policy of the green mainstream since 2010, after the financial crisis of 2008 - after the fall of Bear Stearn Bank and/or the subsequent disaster of the Lehman Brothers Bank. Since then, every left-wing green policy has been carried out under the guise of freedom, to which many conservatives have also succumbed, especially our former Chancellor Merkel. Germany Conservatives have become so green today - that they either don't want it to be, or can't admit it, due to the adoption of left-wing green political ideas from conservatives, in our so-called West. And a decade later, they are no longer conservative - but, especially here in Europe, in Germany and as we saw in France this week, they would rather fool themselves in the so-called political center, with the help of the leading media, than on to address the political alternatives of both left and right in public discourse. Green politics seems like a failed, far too expensive state-financed insurance company, a politically left-leaning party that the population fundamentally doesn't need - and only brings with it taxes and inflation (as every left-wing policy ultimately always does from the start), to finance Green politicians. Whose desire for ruin is celebrated daily in the media - and everything that stands against it is tried to be dismissed as right-wing extremist, racist, even anti-Semitic; as in the case of Trump. But Trump is neither right-wing extremist, let alone racist and/or anti-Semitic - his son-in-law is Jewish, and he feels an obligation to the US taxpayer and US consumer. In contrast to green, large-scale adventure addicts who want to save the world and overlook the fact that the people in their own country believe their words less and less. And that is because words are the currency of every politician! What else?

Anyway, but don't understand me wrong, because I was also a liberal green social democratic activist for a long time ago - but to go into it in more detail at this point would go too far. Everyone who knows me knows that I myself was until 2010 and/ 2012 a liberal, green, social democratic activist back then - because I thought that my conservative right family, let alone anyone else, will never offer me an opportunity to become a morally, monetarily sound, profitable businessman, since my time as a teenager (around the years 2000). Let alone that the people around me will give me the opportunity to build a company - to allow me to become an employer. However, let's come back to today's price action and/or even politics in france. It is today how it is - and/or even CNN wrote today “Marine LePen is the kingmaker today: French journalist explains the governmental crisis”. Well, what's next in France? I don't know! But I know it was a historic week in Paris. For the first time in the history of the now 60-year-old Fifth Republic, a government was overthrown. Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented an austerity plan for the future budget last Monday and wanted to push it through without parliamentary approval. To achieve this, he had to submit a motion of no confidence, which he ultimately lost on Wednesday evening. 331 of the 577 MPs voted against his budget and at the same time for the dismissal of the cabinet. Which is why a bad impression is created about the ability of the two largest countries, France and/or Germany, to govern. And all this while Donald Trump is preparing his term of office on the other side of the Atlantic and is arguing with us here in Europe ever more confidently, while here the governments of the two most important member states of the EU, for better or worse, are only in office on a provisional basis. And even after the appointment of a new French Prime Minister, it is not to be expected that France will become more capable of acting. Let alone my home country Germany, with a new old chancellor. But because hope dies last, as we say colloquially here in Germany, I am still hopeful! Even if I'm increasingly losing the realistic optimism that I'm generally said to have, in this case.

• Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
  

This was the learning question of last week. And we have to say very clearly: "It was the bears!" Because on all 5 trading days of last week the bears recaptured the current territory in the DXY . Whether this is a medium-term trend reversal for the coming days, even weeks? Or was it just a week of consolidation to continue rising? That remains to be seen.

“The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis. ... I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.”

George Soros

• Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
  
• Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
  

The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Last week the bears took over. Pathbreaking for this week, maybe even by the end of the year, after DXY closed at 105.782 points last weekend, is even the first annual high of 2024 and/or the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation with 104.447 points from 2024/08/01. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 is continuing. While a price action back below into the w trend reversal formation should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .


“Economic optimism jumps for Republicans, sinks for Democrats after Trump's election win”, as yahoo! finance headlines today. Nevertheless with 105,420 points as the daily daily low today and/or weekly low this week in the DXY the price action today was at a new low since Tuesday, November 12th, 2024. Without going into detail at this point about the US unemployment rate and/or US consumer sentiment from UNI Michigan, I would like to point out that we are now entering the weekend this week with +0.188 green bullish points. after we had a minus of -1,708 read bearish points last week. On a weekly basis, there is a small green doji, after a clearly negative red bearish candlestick. So a trend reversal is definitely possible again next week. But because fiscal policy is currently dominating events in France, we'll wait for the French politicians' decision next week! And then see what happens next?


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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