Bulls push DXY on tariff news... Still plenty of bears

13 ส.ค. 2019

On the fundamental and macro side of things we've had an interesting development in the trade war today as it has been announced that the 300bn worth of tariffs Trump threatened aren't happening September but instead December. Yay... I guess? While this news seems to have had a positive short term effect the reality is many people are still in fear of an approaching recession, global economies are seeing signs early, the IMF and other significant financial entities are all becoming less and less optimistic. It's still important to remember that all that's happened is that US businesses and the global financial markets have been given some breathing room before the curtain falls on a very tight budget if we go through with these tariffs. This breathing room should promote some activity in other economies and therefore bring back strength to other currencies weakening the dollar further.

On the technical side there's not much to look at, except a possible fakeout from a clear range that began after Trump announced tariffs last week. The news of delayed tariffs did not give the market enough immediate momentum to push it past the current resistance and hold it as support. Price is still expected to test the bottom of the more long term range that has been in effect since shortly after the trade war began last year. Now that price is at the best value price (middle) of the range we can expect a decent down in the next coming days/weeks