DAX Channeling - Easter present?

The DAX has been channeling in a 400 pip wide band for the past 2 months. To make matters interesting, the highest high ever of the DAX has already been approached, already bouncing back just 15 pips away from it!

So the question arises: will the DAX break through the channel or not?

If the DAX REMAINS in the channel (as I am hoping), then the following targets and stop-loss arise:

• Target 1 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 61.80%: 12,201.5 (+107.5 pips)
  
• Target 2 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 38.20%: 12,267.8 (+173.7 pips)
  
• Target 3 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 0.00%: 12,375.2 (+281.1 pips)
  
• Super Conservative Stop-Loss at Fibonacci Extension Level 138.20%: 11986.7 (-107.4 pips)
  
• Normal Stop-Loss: 11,230.0 (-64.1 pips)
  

Super Conservative Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:2.6 at Target 3.
Normal Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:4.4 at Target 3.

I suspect there to be strong resistance at the highest high ever (12,390.75).

I will enter a long trade if the DAX bounces off the lower channel boundary and rises nicely.

If it continues channeling, I believe Target 1 will be met after maximum 5 full days, Target 2 after max. 9 full days and Target 3 after max. 12 full days after the bounce.

What do you think?

Further thoughts:

• I like how the first border-to-border move's Fibonacci extension level of 161.80% at the beginning of the channel matches almost perfectly with the second border-to-border move's 100% level.
  
• That same first border-to-border's move's 112.7% level matches the next top-border bounce perfectly.
  

ความคิดเห็น:

The DAX seems to have broken through the channel! If it continues, it means an invalidation of this potential long move!