DAX Weekly Consolidation Pattern สำหรับ TVC:DEU30 โดย SwissView

In case the DAX might not go down next week than candle stickpattern could give an Idea how the markets might run if ever the bias remains to the upside.

DEFINITION of 'Rising Three Methods'

A bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the continuation of the current uptrend. This pattern is formed when the candlesticks meet the following characteristics:

1. The first candle in the pattern is a long white candlestick within a defined uptrend.
2. A series of descending small-bodied candlesticks that trade within the range of the first candlestick.
3. A long white candlestick creates a new high, which suggests that bullish are back in control of the direction

Read more: Rising Three Methods

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APR 18 2017 - VIX v& German Bunds: Both indicating to expect near term decission about further direction to come.

German Bunds: Late day sell off reversed

VIX: Intraday rise reversed. Downside Momentum for stockmarkets shortterm reversed.

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Todays market action:

APR 18 2017: Geopolitics vs. underlying fundamentals:

- British PM May calls for early election to strengthen Brexit hand

vs.

U.S. industrial production rises in line with expectations in March

IMF raises global growth forecast, warns against protectionism

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APR 18 2017: Fears about France Election "halted"

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APR 18 2017 - "Erdogan Referendum", Brexit vs. French Voters

Todays pre announced U.K. snap election on June 8 and sundays "Erdogan Referendum" scaring traders. Question is: Does this might scare voters in France feel scared as well and how will they vote on next sunday.

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APR 18 2017- Long ledged Doji. Closing price on wednesday 19th of April above the candle means up trend is going to continue. Closing price below todays low means the trend is reversed. Also this pattern is an so called "inside day" means where the move will go the following trading day the trend will accalerate.

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APR 18 2017: Euro up - unexpectedly

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APR 19 2017: Macron clings on to lead in tense French election race
Centrist Emmanuel Macron held on to his lead as favorite to win France's presidential election, a closely-watched poll showed on Wednesday, although it showed that the first round of voting at the weekend Sunday remains too close to call. Source:

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APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.

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APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce:

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APR 20 2017 - The market suddenly doubts the Fed will raise rates twice more this year
Traders assign just a 41 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year.
Goldman economist Jan Hatzius counters that concerns over the economy now will abate and allow the Fed to fulfill its projections for 2017
Source:

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Comment: APR 21 2017 - Beyond geopolitics European fundamentals remain strong:
Euro zone composite PMI hits 6-year high in April

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APR 21 2017 - Global finance leaders find a more temperate Trump in Washington

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APR 21 2017: DAX weekly on track to complete consolidation pattern

In case that the French election would not cause a sell off next week and stockmarkets might rise than the last 3 weeks had been a consolidation pattern. This would anticipate that the bull market is still running and the DAX is going to rise further and higher than widely expected.

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APR 21 2017 -The Dow had shown a similar continuation pattern below the 20k milestone:

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APR 21 2017: Traders might keep in mind that in both cases the F&G Index similar is falling to extreme fear levels.

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APR 23 2017: For German Readers (english as soon as available)
Angela Merkel musste Trump Berichten zufolge 11-mal die Prinzipien der EU erklären

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result

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APR 24 2017 - South Korea first quarter GDP growth to bounce sharply from fourth quarter on exports, capex

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APR 25 2017 - Global stock markets power to record highs

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APR 25 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round two

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ECB's Draghi gives upbeat outlook, denies discussion of exit strategy

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Weekly Comic: Trump and Macron keep the global rally going

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Wall Street opens higher with earnings in focus

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NASDAQ closes at record high ahead of major techs earnings.

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop

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Defeated first-round candidate Dupont-Aignan endorses Le Pen for French president

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Le Pen Has Potential Prime Minister, No Rush on Euro Exit

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Asian equities edge up as Japan outperforms, dollar regains traction
The mood brightened slightly, however, on news that U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, thus averting a government shutdown.

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Comment: The latest polls show most people think Brexit was a mistake. This could be a turning point

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Nasdaq hits record highs ahead of Apple earnings

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German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI

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Brazil's manufacturing PMI rises past 50 for first time since 2015

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop

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German unemployment rate holds steady at record low of 5.8%

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Strong economic fundamentals vs. geopolitics (todays market action)

European stocks move lower amid political uncertainty; DAX down 0.10%

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"Perfect Storm" for Germany´s DAX: US-Economic is still in an uptrend but the upside momentum is cooling down. There is no thread about any unexpected rate hikes near term.

U.S. ADP non-farm payrolls rise by 177,000 in April

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4 days before the second round of french election Bundspreads sending a clear signal:

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: Macron Party "En Marche" is likely to win by landslide the french election unexpectedly.

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U.S. factory orders rise; core capital goods orders revised up

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Black Swan:

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Bundspreads - short:

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Jobs creation expected to bounce back, miss could push back rate hikes

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European stock funds gather momentum as inflows cross all-time record high of $6 billion

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CNBC Headline on Saturday/Sunday May 12/13: Billions of dollars move out of the US as some investors flee the beleaguered Trump trade
ETF.COM

Source:

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Germany's upturn set to continue in coming month: economy ministry

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U.S. political jitters weigh on European shares as M&A, earnings whir in background

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Philly Fed manufacturing index blows past consensus in May

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Wall St. edges up as investors buy beaten down stocks

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Man who called Dow 20,000 says stock market could see 1,000-point surge if Trump resigns

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U.S. economic outlook brightens as job market tightens

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S&P 500 hits record high close following Fed minutes

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Rare retail bright spot boosts S&P, Nasdaq to records.

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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron

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Comment: April 18th 2017: The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems

Quote: Conservatives are way ahead of Labour in polls of the United Kingdom — which may have been behind Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to declare a “snap” general election for June 8 in the hopes of increasing her party’s majority in Parliament.

But May’s move isn’t risk free. In fact, if the final polls come within a couple of percentage points of the actual vote on June 8, it will be something of an upset. Polls in the U.K. have a history of inaccurate performance, with average errors that more than double the ones in American presidential elections.

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Comment: UK General Election polls: Tory majority ‘could be slashed to just two seats’ as Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour makes gains

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Pound Traders Sweat as Narrowing Polls Boost Election Jitters

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Comment: Latest polls showing Theresa May lost majority in popular votes - wich doesn't matter for the parlamentary election.

43% Torries (Theresa May)
36% Labour
9% Lib
4% SNP
Source:

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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority

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Comment: Sterling hammered by poll showing risk of hung parliament

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Markets now start to focus on the UK election. For the DAX anything else than the scheduled "hard BREXIT" matters and should gain positiv momentum medium term.

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Japan's manufacturing growth picks up to three-month high on improving orders: PMI

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German unemployment rate falls to new record low

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Comment: George Soros`s bets against Donald Trump failed.

This is what he bet against and maybe he is going to fail again:

Soros says the European Union is now in an existential crisis, surrounded by hostile powers

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Labour ahead of Conservatives in unadjusted poll of voters
Overall result for Ipsos Mori still shows Theresa May ahead by five points - but the gap is narrowing in Jeremy Corbyn's favour

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British PM May's election gamble in doubt as poll lead falls to one point

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Quote: Investing.com - Europe is likely to set the tone for global financial markets this week, with the European Central Bank policy meeting and British general election on investors' minds.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., market players will pay close attention to former FBI director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, in a hearing that could add to difficulties facing President Donald Trump.
Source:

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Week Ahead: UK Election, Slowing U.S. Growth Boost Safe Havens

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Comment: China May data to show stable growth as exports stay solid

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Comment: After London attack, May faces election heat over police cuts

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Jeremy Corbyn calls for Theresa May to resign as Prime Minister for presiding over police cuts while Home Secretary
The Labour leader said he backed similar calls by 'very responsible' people who are 'very worried' about her record

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Theresa May told to cancel Donald Trump's state visit to UK
'Show some bottle please PM. Cancel the state visit and tell Trump where to get off'

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The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closer

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UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'

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General Election 2017: Conservative poll lead over Labour narrows to just one point

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Trump says ahead of former FBI Director Comey's testimony: 'I wish him luck'

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European shares tread water as UK election, Spanish banks in focus

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Trump pushes infrastructure plan as Russia probe heats up

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Polls now moving more to Theresa May:

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Also to remind - French parlamentary Elections on Sunday:

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French parliamentary election polls point to Macron landslide
First-round results for overseas voters have La République En Marche candidates ahead in 10 out of 11 constituencies

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Four reasons why the French parliamentary elections matter

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OECD ups global growth forecast to six-year high; downgrades US

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German Bunds, 10Y yield. Technical Signal in time. Click on the chart to load new bars.

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Weekly candlesticks anticipating shwoing bullish Harami Cross - wich could indicate a reversal pattern.

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Bullish harami cross likely to be confirmed. DAX could rise to new all time highs now before the uptrend is going to be reversed medium term.

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Quote:

Spiegel: Massive collusion amongst German automakers
In what could be the biggest case of collusion in Germany's history, the weekly news magazine 'Spiegel' has reported that German car makers have been secretly meeting since the 1990s.
Source:

This is a major event dragging the DAX down below the major support line:

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ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการตัดขาดทุน:

Until it is more clear, how the DAX is going to react finally to this by SPIEGELonline reported issue all longposition on all European Stockmarkets are closed today. Germany's DAX30 is the bellwether for Europe. It is unlikely that other stockmarket indices not going to follow the DAX.

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Additional views - click on this chart to read comments.

Major Negativ Event: Gemany's Carmakers Dragging Down The DAX

DAX Weekly Consolidation Pattern

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