Hi everyone,
Loved to pick this company as a conservative, I expect an average growth from it throughout 2022, which is better than the "who know when it will fall hard" situation in riskier assets.
Probably I will hold it all until mid-2022 for sure, and only reduce if tech has calmed down enough to be a good buy or it's price would reach a level that's not similarly sustainable than today's.
So let's look why I love it, and I think it came to a possible trend reversal in Q4 2021:
Fundamental quickie:
- Earnings are stable and growing
- PE ratio < 15 even after price rose 10%
- Debt to EBIDTA is decreasing since 2018.
To me there is no red flag fundamentally here, looks like a comfortable situation to get in.
Technical analysis:
- In a downtrend since 2016, LH's: $67 in 2016, $57 in 2019.
- Started from below 100W and 200W MA, and testing 100W, which is a price that technically won't be too much lower :)
- 50D MA has crossed up 100D MA (short-term indicator) and 100W looks like it will cross 200W (good omen for long-term)
- formed a smaller cup-and handle and now it forms a bigger one, I showed it on the chart -> if this one completes, that means crossing the downtrend line at $47 up to ~$51-52 and probably trending up after a re-test.
This all suggests me I had a good buy.
Expected scenario: reaching Crossing long-term MA lines, downtrend line and reaching $52+ until July (which would be a 25% gain in my case)
Worst-case scenario: bottoming again, $37 support line lowest.
If worst-case plays out my strategy would be to double holdings if new analysis suggests so.
Cheers,
Antonio
Loved to pick this company as a conservative, I expect an average growth from it throughout 2022, which is better than the "who know when it will fall hard" situation in riskier assets.
Probably I will hold it all until mid-2022 for sure, and only reduce if tech has calmed down enough to be a good buy or it's price would reach a level that's not similarly sustainable than today's.
So let's look why I love it, and I think it came to a possible trend reversal in Q4 2021:
Fundamental quickie:
- Earnings are stable and growing
- PE ratio < 15 even after price rose 10%
- Debt to EBIDTA is decreasing since 2018.
To me there is no red flag fundamentally here, looks like a comfortable situation to get in.
Technical analysis:
- In a downtrend since 2016, LH's: $67 in 2016, $57 in 2019.
- Started from below 100W and 200W MA, and testing 100W, which is a price that technically won't be too much lower :)
- 50D MA has crossed up 100D MA (short-term indicator) and 100W looks like it will cross 200W (good omen for long-term)
- formed a smaller cup-and handle and now it forms a bigger one, I showed it on the chart -> if this one completes, that means crossing the downtrend line at $47 up to ~$51-52 and probably trending up after a re-test.
This all suggests me I had a good buy.
Expected scenario: reaching Crossing long-term MA lines, downtrend line and reaching $52+ until July (which would be a 25% gain in my case)
Worst-case scenario: bottoming again, $37 support line lowest.
If worst-case plays out my strategy would be to double holdings if new analysis suggests so.
Cheers,
Antonio
I'd expect some consolidation from here together with S&P. In that case, let's see if a moving average (adding 200D to the picture) provides support, or it will go all the way to $37.
In case of the bigger fall my strategy is to double the position at that renewed bottom, as I think this company's valuation is totally ok, I still expect moderate gains from it in the next 6-12 month. (compared to tech sector for example, which has huge risks for this year, and it will be hard to step in at bottoms)
Cheers