Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of Higher Oil Prices... For Now

Oil broke down lower off news that Biden will start to use US oil reserves to the tune of 1M barrels per day and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. This was enough to bring oil down from the $100 handle, albeit briefly. We found support just above our level at 96.88, about 100 ticks north at 97.78 before we saw a nice pivot back to the $100 handle. However, the Kovach OBV is still very bearish after this selloff, so we will need more momentum to come through if we want to solidify the $100's again. If we drop further, then 96.88, 95.24, then 92.03 are the next targets. It does appear that oil has priced in the news, so we are likely to stabilize and form a value area in the low $100's, with $106 a likely target if that is the case.