DETAILED VISUAL ELLIOTT ANALYSIS: BTC/USDT, 06 July, 2024
© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M
Question 1: Where are we in Elliott wave analysis? We are in the 4th wave (See 2nd image), specifically labeled wave ((iv))-circled, navy.
Question 2: What pattern is the 4th wave developing under? Wave ((iv))-circled, navy, is developing in the form of a Double Zigzag. Waves W and X are completed, and wave Y is still unfolding to complete. Wave Y subdivides into a Zigzag labeled ABC, and we are at the end of wave A. (See the third image)
Question 3: Is this forecast bullish or bearish? The answer is to decrease with the 4th wave, then increase again with the 5th wave.
CHART ANALYSIS:
(LEFT CHART) THE BROAD CONTEXT ANALYSIS (2D CHART):
The broader context shows that wave (3)-orange has just ended at the high of 71,997.02. This is a special case because wave 5-grey of wave (3)-orange is truncated; it failed to create a higher price than the end point of wave 3-grey and clearly oscillated below that price. Therefore, I decided to label this as truncated.
Analyzing the concept of "truncated," which occurs very rarely in real markets, I generally avoid labeling it as such unless I have sufficient critical evidence.
Evidence 1: It tends to appear when the preceding third wave moved "too fast, too far." Reviewing the previous data, this indeed occurred and makes sense.
Evidence 2: The subwaves of that fifth wave must be in a five-wave pattern. Looking in more detail from the end of wave 4-grey to the end of wave 5-grey, the price action subdivides into a clear five-wave pattern. I can even identify a Triangle labeled as wave ((iv))-navy. This fits well with the concept of a truncated fifth wave.
Since wave (3)-orange peaked, wave (4)-orange is unfolding to move lower. A common target for the fourth wave retracement is around the 38.2% area, so it might continue to push lower towards 48,164.94, or even lower to 42,499.08.
Wave (4)-orange appears to be developing as a Double Zigzag, with waves W and X-grey completed, and since the high of 63,861.76, wave Y-grey is completing its work.
(RIGHT CHART): THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (6H CHART)
The short-term outlook details wave (iv)-orange, which seems to be unfolding as a Double Zigzag. Since the high of 63,861.76, wave Y-grey is doing its work, subdividing into a Zigzag labeled ((a))-circled, navy.
I suspect that wave ((a))-navy is nearing completion, so it will essentially continue to move lower while the price remains below 57,261.02. A push above 57,261.02 will confirm that wave ((a))-navy has ended. When this happens, wave ((b))-navy will unfold, targeting slightly higher levels. Finally, wave ((c))-navy will return to push lower, aiming for the targets analyzed in the 2D Chart, such as 48,164.94 or even lower.
Invalidation point: 63,861.76.
© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M
Question 1: Where are we in Elliott wave analysis? We are in the 4th wave (See 2nd image), specifically labeled wave ((iv))-circled, navy.
Question 2: What pattern is the 4th wave developing under? Wave ((iv))-circled, navy, is developing in the form of a Double Zigzag. Waves W and X are completed, and wave Y is still unfolding to complete. Wave Y subdivides into a Zigzag labeled ABC, and we are at the end of wave A. (See the third image)
Question 3: Is this forecast bullish or bearish? The answer is to decrease with the 4th wave, then increase again with the 5th wave.
CHART ANALYSIS:
(LEFT CHART) THE BROAD CONTEXT ANALYSIS (2D CHART):
The broader context shows that wave (3)-orange has just ended at the high of 71,997.02. This is a special case because wave 5-grey of wave (3)-orange is truncated; it failed to create a higher price than the end point of wave 3-grey and clearly oscillated below that price. Therefore, I decided to label this as truncated.
Analyzing the concept of "truncated," which occurs very rarely in real markets, I generally avoid labeling it as such unless I have sufficient critical evidence.
Evidence 1: It tends to appear when the preceding third wave moved "too fast, too far." Reviewing the previous data, this indeed occurred and makes sense.
Evidence 2: The subwaves of that fifth wave must be in a five-wave pattern. Looking in more detail from the end of wave 4-grey to the end of wave 5-grey, the price action subdivides into a clear five-wave pattern. I can even identify a Triangle labeled as wave ((iv))-navy. This fits well with the concept of a truncated fifth wave.
Since wave (3)-orange peaked, wave (4)-orange is unfolding to move lower. A common target for the fourth wave retracement is around the 38.2% area, so it might continue to push lower towards 48,164.94, or even lower to 42,499.08.
Wave (4)-orange appears to be developing as a Double Zigzag, with waves W and X-grey completed, and since the high of 63,861.76, wave Y-grey is completing its work.
(RIGHT CHART): THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (6H CHART)
The short-term outlook details wave (iv)-orange, which seems to be unfolding as a Double Zigzag. Since the high of 63,861.76, wave Y-grey is doing its work, subdividing into a Zigzag labeled ((a))-circled, navy.
I suspect that wave ((a))-navy is nearing completion, so it will essentially continue to move lower while the price remains below 57,261.02. A push above 57,261.02 will confirm that wave ((a))-navy has ended. When this happens, wave ((b))-navy will unfold, targeting slightly higher levels. Finally, wave ((c))-navy will return to push lower, aiming for the targets analyzed in the 2D Chart, such as 48,164.94 or even lower.
Invalidation point: 63,861.76.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน