BTC/USD Local trend 11/19/2023
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Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Rising channel. The chart shows key support/resistance levels for working in a local trend.
Code zone 273 or synchronization specifically with the price of $27,300—this is the main key break zone of the downward trend. We are now in the zone of the previous distribution of the 2020-2021 cycle.
Scale for understanding.
Code zone 273 or synchronization specifically with the price of $27,300—this is the main key break zone of the downward trend. We are now in the zone of the previous distribution of the 2020-2021 cycle.
Scale for understanding.
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Failure to consolidate above the level of 44018.31 (little short stop loss).
The price declined to test the local monthly uptrend.
From this price zone the price can go in any direction, it should be understood with a 50/50 probability depending on where there will be more liquidity stop Loss.
1️⃣ An important local date is the 13th, the so-called black moon, the last of the year.
2️⃣ Then the 15th FTX hearing (announcement of refund dates, they will say how favorable it will be for the market).
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The resistance zone of 44,000 is the key resistance of reversal to 36-28-26 or pre-New Year's "pump" in case of consolidation above it.
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Time frame 1 day. Until January 15 (the key date mentioned earlier) there will again be pumping of info space and opinion on the acceptance / non-acceptance of the spot ETF by the US Securities Commission (SEC). Hence, the next round of "hunger games" will be opened after the New Year on January 5-6.
On bitcoin, under the resistance zone of 44,700 (key and symbolic) an ascending (bullish) triangle is forming at the moment. It is worth noting that above this resistance accumulates a huge liquidity from stop-loss shorts, which can serve as "fuel" for the impulse (breakout of it). This triangle is forming near the resistance of the large ascending channel (percentages shown). Local percentages taking into account this formation and key support/resistance levels are shown.
Altcoins and the $44,700 breakout.
If this liquidity is removed and the 17% triangle works its way up (even with a false breakout to channel resistance) - ALTCOINS EXPLODE in the moment and "overtake the market". Especially the low and medium liquid ones (which are swinging even now, when bitcoin is in the zone of doubt and uncertainty).
Liquid, large capitalization, HYIP (crowd is planted) — of course not now (i.e. price rise or fall only according to the market trend no more and no less).
Triangle break down through a false breakdown or without it..
The first stop zone 38 -36 thousand to the bullish meridian (will be relevant later), which is the middle of the ascending channel.
Not now (but worth reminding). Money and risk management..
Maximum reduction at the moment of capitulation for long liquidation, as well as by the way shorting of futures and margin positions when reversing by a large % (“needle takeout”), before the transition to the participation phase (price movement of 2024 targets to 2025 distribution zones) and a significant correction in the trend (does not break it) is a dynamic support of this huge ascending channel, which is the zone 28-26 and even 24 depending on the time of realization (the channel is ascending). When trading, earning, remember about this logical probability and set aside at least 30% of the profit in stablecoins. This happens when it is not expected (efficiency).
Futures and the penalty for greed.
Be careful with futures, so that the growth of the numbers drawn by the exchange on the screen of the futures account does not put your vigilance to sleep. Observe risk management. Always withdraw part of your profits to margin with reduced risk or to spot. When cashing out, don't be greedy. Otherwise, you simply burn time (money from you at zero will be taken away in the moment).
In cross and isolated margin, always keep the risk low. In moments of “market panic” this indicator will change to high. Medium risk to liquidation). Have stablecoins to refill collateral at the “peak” of fear.
Another option is knocked out stops (of all positions or part of them) as a body of collateral. Remember that in sharp movements, stops may fail or partially fail due to price slippage (make a large stock pitch, especially on low liquid cryptocurrencies).
It is worth noting that hedging by opening a short position may not work due to the speed of market movement at such times. This is done by a “manipulator” at a time when few people expect it, i.e. on the positive side. If you have time to open a hedge — great. If not — all of the above.
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price at the dynamic meridian of the ascending channel (green dotted) there may be a local upward reversal. The chart shows the key reversal zones of this channel.
Let me remind you that in February the trial on CZ binance (2nd hearing in the US) for money laundering (he admitted it, the entire ledger of this exchange in the possession of the US authorities) by "Binance exchange". Look at the chart, as it was last time in summer (local movement, before the trial local lows, then payment of several billion dollars fine and momentum of BTC price rise).
A few days ago the person in question was not released from the US. In all likelihood closer to the trial there will be a FUD developing about this under the chart. Then again they will pay huge multi-billion dollar fines (cash cow and leverage tool).
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08 02 2024 การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
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+29,15%
Well, bitcoin as in the survey reached the zone of 51-53 thousand $, which is the resistance zone of the ascending channel.
In this zone now in the moment liquid exchanges together make the price squeeze in the top narrow range of 1.6-1.8%.
The logic of price movement from this zone is shown on the chart. They are waiting for stop-losses to accumulate (fuel for price impulses).
The bitcoin price squeeze zone or consolidation under key resistance levels in a not very wide range is a paradise for altcoins. Isn't it? Are you noticing it? Or, have you bought altcoins that "aren't growing" (that bloggers have been broadcasting, hypey before, planted)?
Or maybe you're waiting for the hamster x's of the market allocation zone at the wrong time, and for your greed, alt season has been over 4 months away? I guess similar market participants will be entering the market when they should be exiting it....
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60800 (from yesterday's poll of 7.04%) or exactly 27.29% the percentage previously shown.
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Some alts have momentum, some have gloriously removed stops. Is this a boon or a surprisingly vague panic? February closed out nicely? 1 more day.
Note this +17.6% marked Feb 19, 2024 in the update (white percentage). Are there many exact coincidences ? Or are there no coincidences Mr. Traders??).
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Tactically, the previous highs in BTC price are desirable for market manipulators to break through, a great news backdrop will do that. Accumulate profits from alts, for buyback on a significant unanticipated conditionally correction.
Remember, bitcoin halving in 46 days. As I said earlier, 1 month before and 1 month after this is the “hot time”.
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Crypto media is publishing various positive posts, news, memes.... For example, from the exchange Binance "a movie room watching bitcoin's bullish triangle run upwards" Yes, it's all a movie...
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If the three axes break the local high a little later, the key next stop is to halving to 84,000. The key support zone is 64,000, which is the dynamic support of the local uptrend channel.
💸Remember, bitcoin is on a huge profit, and partly by mani management is dumped by large capital in such consolidation zones. There is also a partial “spillover” from BTC and ETH into another liquid instrument of the most hated coin. What will come out of this, April will show ...
It is quite possible that BTC will be "marinating" (consolidation) in the "uncertainty zone 64-73" for some time. If this happens, low and medium liquidity alts will shoot" as always with such (#AltSeason). Remember to sell and not get greedy.
🔵 Global targets and movement logic here.
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Locally squeeze exactly into 60,800 support, back to 64,000 zone again. Now it's already local resistance (doubt zone).
🔴📉 If we do not go above the key zone, then decline to the zone 56-58 (in fact, this is the main zone of the buyer of this correction).
🟢🕯📈If we do come back and consolidate above the 64,000 zone. Then we will see “fireworks” on alts and return to the zone of local highs. Now there is an active overflow of money into some alts.
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If this zone is held - local "double bottom - dragon" to the zone 68 000 - 70 500.
If not, the downside potential to the 56-58 zone remains.
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Local movements within it will be displayed on alts (similar formations or with similar meaning of reversal zones as "big brother" projections).
😱🐳Remember, the main liquidity zone of huge short positions conventionally under 80k dollars.
🔄Now triangle (4 hours) and reversal zones. High probability of an upside breakout. At least the profit/loss ratio is good now. stop Loss is very short. Remember, everything like this is done locally from the momentum situation. News background is invented ex post facto to accompany and justify the price movement.
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declined to the 64000 level area by about -8% from the 69,450 breakout. Earlier percentages and logic is shown. Still nothing changes, a symmetrical triangle - double top is forming on a large time frame. Depending on the reaction of this zone (consolidation/not consolidation).
Special everything simplified, to understand the logic, Levels values rounded (will not be accurate, but so clearer). There are 16 days - bitcoin halving. For other time zones and what their essence was said earlier.
Realization of the triangle (breakout on volume and consolidation of the local downtrend, purple) - April is quite bullish.
Breakout and consolidation under 64,000 - double top implementation. Buying zones are shown. The month is quite bearish.
No breakout of the local downtrend after price growth within the triangle - realization of a triple top. The month will be a sawing of this zone, i.e. alternating positive/negative.
Since it all will be displayed on alts in multiplied coefficient - observe risk management, working in any direction. This is all local and possible effect medium term. In a globally bullish scenario, this is one of the stop-consolidation zones.
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The liquidation zone of futures with big shoulders is the zone of 71-72 thousand. If before halving, they will make a pennant — under 80 thousand — super liquidity and short liquidation. From those values can be a significant decline, but not immediately.
The main zone of liquidation of long positions of large volume is 56-58. I am inclined that it will happen from higher values than now. The important zone is the price reaction at the resistance of this triangle and the “liquidity harvest”.
Breakout and consolidation — pennant. Corresponding reaction of alts.
No breakout — sharp decline - take out longs.
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+3.68% We entered the zone of local stops of shorts 72, thereby forming an ascending triangle (bullish) with a base of 31%. The price is still near the breakout zone. การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
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😱Massive negative news on US banks and an “attack” on #Israel A short scenario may come to fruition, or the collection of long StopLoss liquidity under the triangle. Huge liquidity zone 64,000.
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🔴Showed percentages of key local levels and zones after the ascending triangle broke down. A local downward channel is now forming. There is a second wave of decline inside it; key price zones were announced and shown earlier. The first zone was passed by 64,400 - 60,800. The next one in terms of liquidity collection is 58-53.
🟣An extremely negative scenario, rather a coincidence of circumstances not in the crypto world and luck 46,000 - 44,000 (probably not enough, but worth considering from the position of capital distribution in money management). Then, naturally, there is a strong rise in prices, digitalization is taking place all over the world... It is very worthwhile to take this point seriously for those who are gaining positions with long margin leverage. Curb your greed. Keep your risk low at all times.
🟢To go to the short stop loss liquidity zone, it is the breaking of the resistance of this downward channel that is important, that is, the implementation of the “Dragon” pattern. The key zone of “non-return to these values” and the target at 138 -160” will be the fixation of the BTC price above the previous price highs (73,777) with a “margin”, say 75,388.
🔄 Beginning of May. The key time zone for Bitcoin and the crypto market as its projection. In which it will be decided whether May and part of June will be bullish or not.
Alts with high and medium liquidity. The latter are more relevant. Some are now at the zones of their conditional support of the dialing channels, some in the secondary trend have rolled back to retest the breakout zone of the resistance of the dialing channels. Recruit in parts, having distributed the capital in advance, for example, into 2-3 zones, and don’t be afraid of anything. One of them now. Ignore those altcoins that have a lot of news noise and have significantly improved. Don't be interested in crypto events and news. Everything is always the same.
The market will be pumped up very much, because the meaning of all the world's ideas "is the promotion of digitalization. The crypto market is its mass media basis. Countering anything is the most powerful promotion tool. No matter how scared you may be locally when looking at the graph, it is important to understand what is happening globally. If you often look at the charts and are interested in the invented nonsense for it, you will not even take what is distributed for the sake of promotion.
Again, he repeated everything said and shown earlier. In trading, those who understand what they are doing and control their risks, and do not guess prices, always win. Any trader with several years of experience understands where the price will go to implement one or another potential scenario. But not everyone, understanding this, can control their risks when the price goes against their main scenario. This is especially true for margin trading and futures. Work in both directions, without prioritizing one of the scenarios, always control the risk. Treat the market “coldly” and unbiasedly. Don't be interested in the opinion of the majority.
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After entering the liquidity zone of 58-53 you $, the price has grown at the moment by 13.6% to the key resistance zone with the central value of 64550, thus there are now attempts to break the logic of resistance of the descending local channel.
🟢📈Breaking and consolidating it - impulses-fireworks on alts +30-40% in stronger ones, in liquid or less weak ones less by an order of magnitude.
🔴📉 Not a breakthrough - the second run, but most likely, first again to the zone of 58,000, and then with a high probability to 53,000. On alts similarly.
BTC percentages from this reversal zone to key resistance and support levels were shown earlier, I have duplicated them again.
Alts as a projection of bitcoin rose by +20-30% to their resistances. Almost everywhere the situation is identical. Due to the fact that this resistance zone is key and dictates the development of further trend (clamping). #stoploss is very short, take-outs are large. By the way, both longing (under the squeeze zone) and shorting (over the resistance, or over the pin bar if a false one is formed).
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Alts will act as a projection of the “crypto market index” represented by Bitcoin. Follow risk management if you work locally. Especially if with a margin. In the spot, gain positions little by little and don’t be afraid.
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🕯 Alts as a projection of the “crypto market index”. The next local key resistance is 65,660, then the zone 68-69 thousand.
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Reaching +9.69% from the level of 60800 to the level of 65661 (slightly higher as shown in percentage). Now is the important point:
🔴🟢 not maintaining this level zone - rollback to 63,406. If after this dynamic support is maintained - rebound and growth of +15.8%
🔴 They are unlikely to give below 63 thousand, but the next local zone in cases of failure to maintain the level is 60,800, up to 58,000 (unlikely as there is very little time). Strong support is always not levels, but rather dynamic support of large directions (not trending in the classical sense), as well as resistance.
🟢 holding this local support - the implementation of the pennant to the zone of 69,450. That there is the beginning of the implementation of the inverted head and shoulders with a base of 15.8% to the liquidity zone of 72-76 thousand.
Larger scale line graph to understand this local area. 4 hours
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The targets of the pattern "inverted head and shoulders" are realized, from the reversal zone now at the moment +26% with the target initially shown +31.08%
Is the local alt season starting?
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