BTC/USDT: Key Support Levels and Strategy for a Volatile Week

Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels
1. 99,000 USDT
• Aligned with the daily 50-day moving average, serving as a key pivot zone.
• Clusters of buy orders observed around the 98–99k range.
2. 97,000 USDT
• Corresponds to the daily Auto AVWAP (low).
• Potential pullback zone if 99k is breached on a daily close.
3. 93,000–91,000 USDT
• Potential lower limit for the “C” wave (Elliott) in case of a stronger market drop.

Resistance Levels
1. 105,000–106,000 USDT
• Auto AVWAP high across multiple timeframes (daily, 12H).
• Significant clusters of short positions to be liquidated in the 105–107k range.
2. 108,000–110,000 USDT
• Recently tested upper zone and local top.
3. Above 110,000 USDT
• A breakout above this level would signal strong continuation towards new local highs.

Recommendations & Potential Strategy

1. Wait for Bottom Confirmation
• As long as 99k holds on a daily close, the current movement appears to be a pullback. A breakdown below 99k could open the door to 93–91k.
• On the 4-hour chart, watch for bullish RSI divergence (price forms a new low while RSI doesn’t) as a potential swing entry signal.

2. Risk Management This Week
• Wednesday: FOMC decision followed by the press conference
• Thursday & Friday: Quarterly earnings for Apple, Microsoft, etc., likely increasing volatility.
• Combined with ETF flows and speculative interest in AI developments, market moves could accelerate in either direction.

3. Main Scenario (Underlying Bullish Trend, Short/Mid-Term Correction)
• The MTFTI indicator shows an “Up” signal on the 4H timeframe, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
• Daily ISPD Div Pro approaches the 0.90–0.97 zone, suggesting potential market overheating and the need for consolidation.

Strategy
• Consider progressive buying (“buy the dip”) in the 99k–97k range, with a stop-loss below 91–93k to avoid exposure to further breakdowns.
• Initial take-profit targets could be set in the 105–107k zone (short liquidation zone), with potential extensions above 110k if the breakout is sustained.
• Monitor intraday volatility (2H/4H charts) to refine entries, such as spotting a short-term descending channel or RSI divergence.

General Conclusion

The overall mid-to-long-term outlook remains bullish for BTC, supported by institutional buying, MicroStrategy’s acquisitions, and significant progress in spot ETFs. However, short-term indicators (e.g., ISPD Div Pro, RSI, and overbought daily metrics) suggest a phase of consolidation or a final “sell-off” revisiting 99k or 97k before the next rally.

For swing traders, the optimal window seems to be in the 4H–12H timeframes, focusing on potential dips to 99–97k. A quick recovery above 103–105k could open opportunities to target the 107–110k range. Conversely, a break below 99k on a daily close would warrant patience for a potential test of 93–91k.

Summary :
• Primary trend: Still bullish.
• Current phase: Caution during ongoing correction.
• Key events: High volatility expected this week (FOMC and Big Tech earnings).
• Major supports: 99k, 97k, and 93–91k.
• Major resistances: 105–106k, 108–110k.
• Strategy: Use technical indicators across timeframes to align with the broader bullish outlook while remaining alert to short-term volatility.