Entering a period of great volatility

23 ต.ค. 2023

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

As it rises above the 29241.72-30767.38 range, we are entering a period of great volatility.

Accordingly,
The resistance section is
1st: 38531.90
2nd: 46431.5
It is expected to be around the first and second rounds above.

However, even if it falls, it must be supported around 29241.72-30767.38.

If not, it is likely to fall towards the 21258.0-23174.39 area, so selling is necessary to secure profits.


The maximum rise during periods of high volatility is expected to be around 46431.5.

However, depending on how it breaks above 38531.90, there is a possibility that it will form a high around 38531.90 and then fall.

Accordingly, you should check the trading volume when it rises above 38531.90.

In order for a period of high volatility to proceed normally, the price must be maintained above the 29241.72-30767.38 range.

Otherwise, if it touches below 29241.72-30767.38 even once, there is a high possibility of a short-term decline, so a countermeasure is needed.

We don't yet know when this period of high volatility will end, but it is expected to end with a decline to create a large pull back pattern.

If so, the low point to create a large pull back pattern is expected to be near the MS-Signal indicator.

Therefore, as the price rises, the MS-Signal indicator is expected to rise and eventually form a low point around 29241.72-30767.38, the section where the period of great volatility began.


(1D chart)

It shows an upward trend above the box range of 29850.45-31804.20.

Accordingly, it becomes important to be able to maintain the price above 30495.92-30766.51.

The next period of volatility will be around November 2-8.

(4h chart)

The key is whether the upward trend continues along the upward trend line after around October 26th.


As BTC appears to be breaking above its recent high, altcoins are also showing an upward trend.

However, if BTC rises above 32K and continues to rise, altcoins are expected to gradually sideways or begin to decline.

Accordingly, from a mid- to long-term perspective, the secondary purchase period for altcoins is expected to take place between 32K and 43K BTC.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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23 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Since this was a period of great volatility, it is expected to rise less than expected during the BTC halving next year.

The extent of the increase will likely be known only when a pull back pattern emerges.

23 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

It is necessary to check whether the Histogram indicator of StochRSI turns into a bullish one in the candle created this time.

If this is not the case and the weakness continues, there is a high possibility that it will rise to form a high.

In this respect, the 29850.45-31804.20 area is an important support and resistance area.

24 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(BTCUSDT 1M chart)

We have entered the large box range of 32917.17-59053.55.

The key is whether it can receive support and rise in the 34110.32-37253.81 section, which is the first support and resistance section of the box section.


(1W chart)

Above 29241.72-30767.38, if it rises along the upward trend line, it is expected to rise to around 38531.90.


(1D chart)

Support and resistance areas
1st: 34786.17-37779.56
2nd: 44200.0-47600.0


The next period of volatility will be around November 2-8.

Accordingly, it is important to determine where support and resistance are found after a period of volatility.


(4h chart)

It is necessary to check whether the price is maintained above 31804.20 even after October 26th.

25 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Many people say that the current rise is a sign of a bullish market.

I am not trying to tell you whether these thoughts are right or wrong.

However, I think it only appears to be the beginning of a bull market because it is showing an upward trend, rising beyond a point where it has not risen before.


I think you are thinking that the reason for this rise is due to issues related to spot ETFs.

I think these articles actually hinder the analysis of charts by individual investors who are prey(?) to the market.

Therefore, I think it is not a good idea to only make hopeful predictions through these articles.

I think that if the spot ETF is approved, it will only continue to raise the question whether it will rise indefinitely or, if anything, will fall.


We are currently in a period of great volatility.

As I mentioned before, this period of great volatility can either appear in an uptrend or a downtrend.

Currently, we are only experiencing a period of great volatility with an upward trend.

Therefore, when conducting a transaction, you must repeat the process of cashing out the profits.


This is because if you hold it indefinitely, there is a possibility that it will result in a loss.

If this happens, a pull back pattern will appear following a period of high volatility (if the period of high volatility had been in a downtrend, a bottoming pattern would have appeared), causing the loss rate to rise sharply.


This is something you need to pay attention to because in the next full-fledged bull market, when everyone is making profits, there may be cases where you barely break even.


I think that in order for a bull market in which anyone can buy anything to begin, BTC dominance must rise above 61 and then begin to fall.

Therefore, until then, we should focus on converting our profits into cash.

25 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(BTCUSDT chart)


- (1M Chart) We need to confirm whether the price can be maintained above 34110.32.


. (1W chart) The key is whether the price can be maintained above 29241.72-30767.38.

If not, there is a possibility that it will fall to around 212580.0-23174.39, so we need to find a way to respond.


- (1D chart) Support and resistance areas are formed in the 34786.17-37779.56 range.

If it continues to fail to rise above 34786.17, it is likely to fall to around 29850.45-31804.20, so caution is required.

When it falls like this, if the price appears to be maintained near the MS-Signal indicator, it is expected to rise again, so you need to think about how to respond at this time.


(4h chart)

It remains to be seen whether the price can remain above the rising trend line after October 26th.

26 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator is showing a bearish sign.

However, caution is needed as the StochRSi indicator has not yet fallen below the overbought range.

There is a growing possibility that the Histogram indicator of the StochRSI indicator will switch from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Accordingly, caution is needed as the downside is likely to become stronger.

Even if the price falls from the current price, if the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator, there is a high possibility that the upward trend will continue.

Therefore, there is a possibility that a pull back pattern may be created.

26 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(BTCUSDT Chart)

It shows resistance around 34786.17.

You should check the movement for at least 1-3 days to check the support and resistance, so you should check the movement for the last day.

It is expected that we will know some direction depending on where the candle closes on October 27th, whether the trend will occur or continue the sideways.

The next volatility period is around November 2-8, so the current movement may not be important.

However, in order to predict some trends over the volatility period, it is also necessary to keep a close eye on the movements before entering the volatility period.


(1D Chart)

StochRSI Indicators Expected To Close On Decline For The First Time.

Care should be taken as the StochRSI indicator has not fallen below the over-buying interval, which can be virtually meaningless.

However, the decline is expected to increase in the future as the histogram indicators show a shift from rising to falling.

The movement of these indicators means that price movements are slowing, so volatility is likely to occur in the near future.


In these movements, which support and resistance points are supported or resisted becomes significant.

Therefore, as I mentioned earlier, it can be interpreted that whether it is supported or resisted around 34786.17 has an important meaning.


So, if a fall occurs, you have to see if it's a real fall, or if you're trying to create a pullback pattern.

I think the criteria for this verification is possible depending on the support near the MS-Signal indicator.


If the price remains above the MS-Signal indicator, it is likely to continue its upward trend.

Conversely, if prices remain below the MS-Signal indicator, it can be interpreted as likely to continue the downward trend.


Therefore, if the resistance falls near 34786.17, it is expected that the first support and resistance will be checked near the MS-Signal indicator, i.e. 29850.45-31804.

27 ต.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

[StochRSI indicator]

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The key interpretation method of the StochRSI indicator is to check at which point or section it receives support or resistance when it enters the overbought or oversold section and then exits the overbought or oversold section.

Therefore, since the StochRSI indicator is currently located in the overbought zone, it is important to check at what point or section you are receiving support and resistance when it falls below the overbought zone.

However, since the StochRSI indicator is a lagging indicator, significant price fluctuations may have already occurred when such movements are seen.


Accordingly, we added the EMA line and Histogram indicator of the StochRSI indicator to check movement more in advance.


- When StochRSI < EMA and Histogram < 0, it means that the strength of the decline will increase in the future.

- When StochRSI > EMA and Histogram > 0, it means that the rising strength will increase in the future.

By using these characteristics, you can gain some time to think about countermeasures to price movements in advance.

This is one of the reasons to use indicators.