Bitcoin Death Cross With P&F Charts
ที่อัปเดต:
Hi,
Tradingview removed my analysis update so i'm posting the revised version with LOVELY Tradingview charts!
In this update i want to explain wyckoff method using poit and figure charts. Wyckoff uses them for identifying the events without the noise. These charts are created using x and o's, hence the topic tic-tac-toe . Google it and you can play the game right on top of search results, cool.
Ok, before going deeper, let's remember the death cross is only one day ahead of us. I want to talk about this briefly because the death cross can create false signals sometimes. In order to confirm this pattern we should look at the context. As a rule of thumb, if the price did not drop more than 20% of it's highs and already recovering, this can be a false signal, but if the price has dropped more than 20%, then the death cross might be hitting hard - which is our case! That said, i do believe we will see a big crash within few days given the vulnarable position of Bitcoin .
Let's also not pass the upthrust event. Yes, it was a tiny one :) I expected a more violent upthrust, but it's a good time to note Wyckoff is not a chart pattern, it's a system that can come in many forms and shapes, so take the drawings as a guideline. You should be studying p&f charts, which is the subject of this post.
Back to proint & figure charts, these charts do not use a timeline like candlestick charts. You only get a new column if there's a price reversal. That means p&f charts articulate volatiliy. This makes it the perfect tool for our crazy volatile Bitcoin . P&F charts remove the noise and makes support and resistance levels crystal clear.
For example, the red support at 35k is clearly the first immediate support of the prior swing low. If it breaks, that will be a Double Bottom Breakdown pattern on the p&f chart. These charts are squeezed version of bar charts where you can only add a new column after a reversal.
The curent structure is currently holding an almost 40k potential fuel and it's not done yet until the last point of support LPS event. Given the price is already at 35k, it can't go below zero, so this 40k (and counting) will be added to the current price, (not substracted) Which takes us to 75k ALREADY!
Fuel calculation is:
Number of coulmns x reversal x box size
13 x 3 x 1000 = 39.000
I'm using 3 box reversal with a box size of 1000
Now, since we want to break 100k, we still need at least 25k worth of accumulation. So, 60% is already accumulated and 40% still remains.
It's not easy to understand and explain these charts, but in order to understand how powerful they are, i urge you to watch this* excellent Bitcoin analysis from Bruce Fraser (i'm not advertising here) right before the crash back in May 14th. It's a timeless piece that will make you want to learn p&f charts:
youtube.com/watch?v=eiWrIRlkSx0
If you noticed, he's pointing even lows at 4-5k's in his analysis, if all the distribution counts were dumped. His conservative target was 40k first which was broken and then $31-26k range, but the scary thing is that the composite operator has enough fuel to take the price of bitcoin down to 4-5k if he wanted to! This is why we have to be extremeley cautious before we go all in.
Here's a wyckoff p&f chart tutorial from Bruce Fraser (He's a wyckoff p&f chart guru)
Part 1*
youtube.com/watch?v=1U1BDcqMNXM
Part 2*
youtube.com/watch?v=qheFxzCO4eI
Trade safe!
(*) These videos are not from my own channel and i don't get paid to advertise anything here.
Tradingview removed my analysis update so i'm posting the revised version with LOVELY Tradingview charts!
In this update i want to explain wyckoff method using poit and figure charts. Wyckoff uses them for identifying the events without the noise. These charts are created using x and o's, hence the topic tic-tac-toe . Google it and you can play the game right on top of search results, cool.
Ok, before going deeper, let's remember the death cross is only one day ahead of us. I want to talk about this briefly because the death cross can create false signals sometimes. In order to confirm this pattern we should look at the context. As a rule of thumb, if the price did not drop more than 20% of it's highs and already recovering, this can be a false signal, but if the price has dropped more than 20%, then the death cross might be hitting hard - which is our case! That said, i do believe we will see a big crash within few days given the vulnarable position of Bitcoin .
Let's also not pass the upthrust event. Yes, it was a tiny one :) I expected a more violent upthrust, but it's a good time to note Wyckoff is not a chart pattern, it's a system that can come in many forms and shapes, so take the drawings as a guideline. You should be studying p&f charts, which is the subject of this post.
Back to proint & figure charts, these charts do not use a timeline like candlestick charts. You only get a new column if there's a price reversal. That means p&f charts articulate volatiliy. This makes it the perfect tool for our crazy volatile Bitcoin . P&F charts remove the noise and makes support and resistance levels crystal clear.
For example, the red support at 35k is clearly the first immediate support of the prior swing low. If it breaks, that will be a Double Bottom Breakdown pattern on the p&f chart. These charts are squeezed version of bar charts where you can only add a new column after a reversal.
The curent structure is currently holding an almost 40k potential fuel and it's not done yet until the last point of support LPS event. Given the price is already at 35k, it can't go below zero, so this 40k (and counting) will be added to the current price, (not substracted) Which takes us to 75k ALREADY!
Fuel calculation is:
Number of coulmns x reversal x box size
13 x 3 x 1000 = 39.000
I'm using 3 box reversal with a box size of 1000
Now, since we want to break 100k, we still need at least 25k worth of accumulation. So, 60% is already accumulated and 40% still remains.
It's not easy to understand and explain these charts, but in order to understand how powerful they are, i urge you to watch this* excellent Bitcoin analysis from Bruce Fraser (i'm not advertising here) right before the crash back in May 14th. It's a timeless piece that will make you want to learn p&f charts:
youtube.com/watch?v=eiWrIRlkSx0
If you noticed, he's pointing even lows at 4-5k's in his analysis, if all the distribution counts were dumped. His conservative target was 40k first which was broken and then $31-26k range, but the scary thing is that the composite operator has enough fuel to take the price of bitcoin down to 4-5k if he wanted to! This is why we have to be extremeley cautious before we go all in.
Here's a wyckoff p&f chart tutorial from Bruce Fraser (He's a wyckoff p&f chart guru)
Part 1*
youtube.com/watch?v=1U1BDcqMNXM
Part 2*
youtube.com/watch?v=qheFxzCO4eI
Trade safe!
(*) These videos are not from my own channel and i don't get paid to advertise anything here.
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We have a new downward column on p&f chart! 
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