BTC.Prj.2019.P03E05.V6.Why I don't think inv. H&S is in play
If inverse H&S was to be in play, it should have been triggered in the 4 HRLY already? right?
That made me think, why isn't it doing so?
Hey, I could be wrong but here is my hypothesis otherwise the inv. HS should have happened.
So I looked again and then I realized, we see inverse HS in play because it looks obvious.
However I now believe the Head is not complete and what looks like the right shoulder is part of the head.
Why
A) There is a hidden bearish divergence, which prevents the expected inv. HS to play and go up.
It goes against the logic of the indicator. So we need to see that corrected first.
B) With A) being assumed correct, then the HEAD is not completed and until the price drops and we get the head.
C) We also have the major resistance at 10650 in play and now we see all the MA converge, expecting a breakout either way.
D) We have the ichimoku 4 HRLY showing the same area of resistance and the easiest path is downwards.
E) We also have seen some price manipulation yesterday with crazy price movement, wiping stops and longs.
So now we are at this stalemate where nobody knows where its going to go.
I do believe however the inv. HS is not in play.
Divergence and resistances: If this is truly a bearish divergence, then the histogram should keep dropping and then another starting on the downside.
If this does happen, then for sure the price will plummet.
If it the histogram (blue) was an indicator for price to go up, it should not be going down on the bars but up.
2 type of inv. HS
a) In this situation, price has to hit 10850 or so, drop back and then back up again.
b)
I think both are likely, but no big uptrend until this does.
Cheers,
SSari
That made me think, why isn't it doing so?
Hey, I could be wrong but here is my hypothesis otherwise the inv. HS should have happened.
So I looked again and then I realized, we see inverse HS in play because it looks obvious.
However I now believe the Head is not complete and what looks like the right shoulder is part of the head.
Why
A) There is a hidden bearish divergence, which prevents the expected inv. HS to play and go up.
It goes against the logic of the indicator. So we need to see that corrected first.
B) With A) being assumed correct, then the HEAD is not completed and until the price drops and we get the head.
C) We also have the major resistance at 10650 in play and now we see all the MA converge, expecting a breakout either way.
D) We have the ichimoku 4 HRLY showing the same area of resistance and the easiest path is downwards.
E) We also have seen some price manipulation yesterday with crazy price movement, wiping stops and longs.
So now we are at this stalemate where nobody knows where its going to go.
I do believe however the inv. HS is not in play.
Divergence and resistances: If this is truly a bearish divergence, then the histogram should keep dropping and then another starting on the downside.
If this does happen, then for sure the price will plummet.
If it the histogram (blue) was an indicator for price to go up, it should not be going down on the bars but up.
2 type of inv. HS
a) In this situation, price has to hit 10850 or so, drop back and then back up again.
b)
I think both are likely, but no big uptrend until this does.
Cheers,
SSari
ความคิดเห็น:
time to sell...bearish div
ความคิดเห็น:
oops. bearish div. corrected
ความคิดเห็น:
however RSI over extended
ความคิดเห็น:
ความคิดเห็น:
Its like watch grass grow... why did I ever get into this... should have stuck to my IT career. ;)
ความคิดเห็น:
Both the fib. fan and red line came into play, as pointed out before.
ความคิดเห็น:
What's next
ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร:
It sure wasn't an inverse H&S. as for the main reason making this post.
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