BTC lacking clarity , expecting fundamental changes

14 มิ.ย. 2023

⭐️Market UPDATE⭐️
The market is expecting results and explanations from the US economic and regulatory institutions.

As many of you know, when BTC moves, everything moves in unison, when BTC is dormant , usually some alts take off , and this happened recently with LINA, ALPHA, TOMO and some other less notable coins. You could say that we could have taken those trades, but the reality is that beyond the RR ratio, beyond the TA we can apply to charts.. if BTC decides to drop , all the pseudo bullish patterns we see on some ALTS can get absolutely destroyed, leaving unaware traders in awe because it would not make sense.

1. First big point i want to touch on... SEC suing crypto institutions and the general crypto sphere leaving US slowly. This is showing on the chart, we see undecided moves that seem like "stairs up, elevator down" moves. Some traders get fooled by small bullish moves in a much bigger bearish one.

We do not have a conclusion yet on this point, the fundamentals involving the cases around Coinbase and Binance will probably fade before resurfacing later.

2. FED and rate hikes. Today we will have the FED interest rate decision that will confirm or not the interest rate PAUSE. Personal opinion is that is is already settled.

The rate pause will mean this:
- Borrowing money will not be more expensive than the present
- Pausing would also mean that the FED have reached some sort of stabilization on inflation, indirectly meaning a rate drop in the future. This would be bullish for the markets.


Technical update on BTC

Last time you saw this chart we were talking about the possibility to test the 0.66 Fib as an upside target and also the clear ascending wedge formation (bearish) that we are in since the 10th June.

As it happens, the prediction was correct both ways.😎


Next targets:
Now that we have a 80% sentiment that the FED will pause the rate hikes and we know that we are in a bearish formation which includes an ascending wedge inside an ascending wedge, let's take a look at some scenarios:


Fundamental scenarios
1- Rate drop - Bullish📈
2- Rate pause - Neutral/Bullish📈
3- Rate increase - Bearish📉

Technical scenarios:

Sadly what we see in the chart doesn't look bullish at all, the ascending wedge can indeed be invalidated but it would need some fundamental catalyst.

TA targets on the downside are 25.6k and if accombanied by a rate increase , we can see $25200 again!

Tomorrow i will develop on the bullish scenario on the longer term, until then we need to stay focused with extremely precise RM and have patience.

Don't forget FED announcement at 20:00 GMT +2 followed by the Powell press conference.

Stay sharp!