Bitcoin going strong! OOO NOT!

28 ธ.ค. 2021

Greetings from Amsterdam,

Here a fresh update from the markets..

Zoom out and see the bigger picture.. Well that is quite simple; TRADING RANGE... Never forget the cycle of price in price action is;
TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE --> TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE.. Repeat over and over..

What do i see from a price action standpoint?? Strong bearish candles.. TREND CANDLES.. the 2 ii pattern that is forming now (at the moment of writing) I interpret as a bearish flag and simply a pause in trend.

With a tight bearish trend channel as it is now? what is the probability of a bullish reversal? Understand that 75% (!) of trend reversals fail!!!

The pattern that is now forming, the bearish channel, is the result of a HIGHER HIGH MAJOR TREND REVERSAL + an attempt to breakout of a trading range.. Well 80% of breakout attempts out of a trading range FAIL!

Personally I see the probability of another swing down more common/likely than a bullish reversal..

Never forget it is all about PROBABILITIES..

BUT if you would like to take a HIGH PROBABILITY trade this would be one..

What is high probability trade ?? --> more worse risk reward ratio because your stopp loss is above the high of the major move.. but the chances of winning the trade is bigger..

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