Bitcoin BTC price follows a familiar route

12 เม.ย.

Currently, crypto market users are divided into two camps:
1️⃣ - to the mooon with the first stop at 100k and 2️⃣ - the beginning of a correction to at least 50k.

Two ultra-radical camps that will find 101 reasons why it should be exactly as they "want and expect" and not otherwise.

On the #BTCUSDT chart, we have copied and displayed the fractal of #Bitcoin price behavior for May-October 2020. That is, how the BTC price behaved before and after the previous halving.

And this scenario is not bad: the #BTCUSD price is entering a prolonged consolidation phase at range $65,000-73,000 during the summer of 2024.
At this time, the capital of large funds will be able to partially and smoothly flow into crypto projects with a smaller capitalization.

What can this process provoke? That's right - the alt-season

Are you intrigued?) We are waiting for 50 likes and at least 10 comments from you, and then we will supplement the idea with the BTC.Dominance, USDT.D charts and the total crypto market capitalization chart which clearly show how this process can look like.

12 เม.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Let's start with USDT. Dominance
While the dominance of USDT was growing or hovering in consolidation at range 6-9%, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by a total bearish mood.
As soon as this indicator started to fall, the altos began to revive like snowdrops in spring)
Now the USDT.D indicator is near the 2020 halving point - were on time :)

Now the main thing is that this indicator does not rise above 5.3% over the next 1-2 years, and then everything will be fine for altcoins. Of course, there will be ups and downs, but the main thing is the trend!

Yes, new stablecoins, new regulatory rules, and so on may appear during this time. But now Tether is the main stablecoin with a capitalization of more than $100 billion and it will be difficult and painful to sink it. (Let me remind you that in 2018-19 Tether was heavily "tormented" for the "$850 million hole" not backed but printed USDT, and then it was about 8-10% of the total Tether capitalization - and nothing, they survived and survived)

In short, this indicator is within the normal range and shows that free USDT is more invested in BTC and altcoins in anticipation of continued growth in asset value.

But in order for altcoins to start growing actively, the BTC.D indicator needs to start falling - this will be the next post

12 เม.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

BTC.D is in a slightly worse situation, as it seems to be planning to grow, which will "squeeze all the juice out" of altcoins.
The situation can be saved by an easy update of the indicator's maximum and then the emergence of a stable downward trend.



If BTC.D is in a stable downward trend and the BTCUSDT price does not fall much, this will mean that capital is flowing into altcoins.
And then the most difficult task will be to find which altcoin will be next to be pumped.

12 เม.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Now to the chart of the total capitalization of the crypto market



If you copy the fractal from 2020 and transport it to the current situation, it looks like the total capitalization should not have dropped much, well, -10%-15%.

And then it looks like the growth dynamics of the crypto market capitalization may be more rapid than the projected growth dynamics of the BTCUSDT price.
In previous years, this effect was achieved by skillfully "pumping" altcoins.
We'll have to wait and see what happens this time.

P.S:
You need to understand that this is an analysis on large time frames, so possible 15-20% fluctuations within a week are the norm and will not change anything dramatically.

19 เม.ย.

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We would like to remind you that there are 100 blocks left to be mined before the BTC Halving, which is about 15 hours.

27 เม.ย.

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We slightly adjusted the fractal
$59000 per BTC is a critical level

1 พ.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

The #BTCUSDT price has reached a critical value near $58000

Statistically speaking, if BTC is weak in April, then May may not be so good either...

What are your thoughts, what will happen next? Share your opinion at the comments