Bitcoin correction/consolidation incoming? Uncharted territory
Main TA Points;
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1. BTC.D is at resistance.
2. RSI is looking close to exhaustion here.
3. Next FIB target is 46K with 40K psychological barrier.
4. 40K is also another FIB resistance level based on JUN 19' to MAR 20' fib retracement.
5. Consolidation is needed for this BULL run to continue throughout 2021.
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Talking Points;
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There has been expectations for BTC to retrace for some time, at least back down to confirm the 20K s/r flip. However the markets never act according to traders expectations and assumptions. Its also worthy of mention that in order for this bullrun to maintain momentum we would have to assume a correction/consolidation at some point.
Next target is 46K and we could hit this within the next 2 weeks. To do so we would need shoot past the 40K psychological barrier. The following FIB target puts us at 64K with the larger psychological barrier of 50K.
Previous bullruns have lasted throughout the year, and 30% consolidations were normal. Given that this will be expected, I expect corrections and consolidations larger than 30% to occur this time round possibly with 40-50% large swings. I still assume we are early in the bull run cycle. We could also see either a longer or shorter cycle this time round.
It also worth mentioning that in order for BTC.D to remain at resistance whilst BTC continues its price rise, ALT coins must start to make positive movements during this next 2 weeks.
So given the above assumptions, what is my idea exactly?
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Estimates;
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You shouldn't jump in front of a freight train, and picking the short term top is difficult. However this would be my assumption based on what Ive learned from Crypto.
46K is simply not a big enough psychological barrier now that we have surpassed 30K with strength, and I don't think 40K will be any different. 50K however would act as a significant psychological barrier.
Within the next 2 weeks we should shoot through 46K target, and reverse just shy of 50K. That would give us the wick into the next zone sucking in FOMO longs and begin the consolidation back down to 20K for confirmation. The ride down from 50K to 20K would also give whales enough time to consolidate profits at higher margin, then buy back in at under 50% sale price. It will also shake out the weak hands that bought too high.
Short with RR of 2.12 included in chart.
I also expect certain ALT's to start moving. The ones who break out of their down trend in the next 2 weeks are likely going to survive the crypto purge coming. You can read more on that idea here;
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Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions.
All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk.
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1. BTC.D is at resistance.
2. RSI is looking close to exhaustion here.
3. Next FIB target is 46K with 40K psychological barrier.
4. 40K is also another FIB resistance level based on JUN 19' to MAR 20' fib retracement.
5. Consolidation is needed for this BULL run to continue throughout 2021.
***
Talking Points;
***
There has been expectations for BTC to retrace for some time, at least back down to confirm the 20K s/r flip. However the markets never act according to traders expectations and assumptions. Its also worthy of mention that in order for this bullrun to maintain momentum we would have to assume a correction/consolidation at some point.
Next target is 46K and we could hit this within the next 2 weeks. To do so we would need shoot past the 40K psychological barrier. The following FIB target puts us at 64K with the larger psychological barrier of 50K.
Previous bullruns have lasted throughout the year, and 30% consolidations were normal. Given that this will be expected, I expect corrections and consolidations larger than 30% to occur this time round possibly with 40-50% large swings. I still assume we are early in the bull run cycle. We could also see either a longer or shorter cycle this time round.
It also worth mentioning that in order for BTC.D to remain at resistance whilst BTC continues its price rise, ALT coins must start to make positive movements during this next 2 weeks.
So given the above assumptions, what is my idea exactly?
***
Estimates;
***
You shouldn't jump in front of a freight train, and picking the short term top is difficult. However this would be my assumption based on what Ive learned from Crypto.
46K is simply not a big enough psychological barrier now that we have surpassed 30K with strength, and I don't think 40K will be any different. 50K however would act as a significant psychological barrier.
Within the next 2 weeks we should shoot through 46K target, and reverse just shy of 50K. That would give us the wick into the next zone sucking in FOMO longs and begin the consolidation back down to 20K for confirmation. The ride down from 50K to 20K would also give whales enough time to consolidate profits at higher margin, then buy back in at under 50% sale price. It will also shake out the weak hands that bought too high.
Short with RR of 2.12 included in chart.
I also expect certain ALT's to start moving. The ones who break out of their down trend in the next 2 weeks are likely going to survive the crypto purge coming. You can read more on that idea here;
***
Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions.
All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk.
***
บันทึก
As expected 40K did not act as serious resistance. If we go steep parabolic here we could likely smash through 50K easily as well.
I still anticipate that the 50K mark will act as serious psychological resistance IF this bull run is to continue throughout 2021. For it to be a year long bull run we really do want a consolidation soon.
In saying that, the US federal reserve is about to print another 3 trillion dollars. We could be seeing Bitcoin absolutely blitz it here to 100K as the impulses become more aggressive and volatile.
How Bitcoin acts at the 50K region should give us a better idea.
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