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My bias is based on the fact that after a particular region has been serving as a reliable support for a very long time as seen here, it will become weak and price will eventually break it and hit a low. Extreme fear will set in, then price will take off for a new high.
This idea is based on historical price movement on the chart.
This idea is a speculation, not an affirmation. Before you criticize, read my reasons hereðð
If you study the chart closely, you will notice that in DECâ2017, Bitcoin price hit an all time high at $19,000. Then it started to drop.
Price was falling from DECâ2017 - OCTâ2018 with $6,000 price serving as a reliable support. Unfortunately, the controversies between Bitcoin Cash developers in 2018 and some other factors made Bitcoin break the major support level at $6,000 in November'2018. Then price dropped from this support level breakout from $6,000 to $3,200
Then Bitcoin price spiked from $3200 to another high at $14,000 in JUNâ2017
Then price kept falling from this high in a descending channel pattern. Then later broke the support region which made Bitcoin price crash from $7,400 to $3,800 in Marchâ2018. This Bitcoin crash was caused by the COVIDâ19 outbreak.
Then surprisingly, Bitcoin spiked from $3800 to a new ATH at $64,700 in APRILâ2021
Then price dropped to a new region which became a reliable support for Bitcoin at $29,000 - $31,000.
Price has tested this zone 3-4 times. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin to test this region again and break it.
As indicated on the chart, each time bitcoin break the support region, it falls by 47% - 49%.
Therefore, I expect a crash by 47% from the $29,000 - $31,000 support region to $15,000 - $16,000 region.
Also, a major/global crisis is always the determinant factor that influence the support region breakout.
In 2018, it was influenced by the Bitcoin Cash developers disagreement.
In 2020, it was influenced by the coronavirus outbreak.
For 2022, the support region is yet to break.
Which crisis did you think will break this support region?
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