BTC HTF potential downtrend analysis

Kind of getting more and more convinced that BTC will drop further.
Just by the way the RSI is playing out, 4h -12h.
currently where we are, 4h is overbought which leads me to think, price should come down. If I look at the 12h RSI, signal is moving down from the top and we have a lot of room underneath.
unless we get something really bullish that significantly changes the order book, I see something like this playing out.

Adjusted points 3,4 & 5 to align with significant times using fib time.