Today's Bitcoin: Oscillation below 95,000
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Today's Bitcoin: Oscillation below 95,000
From the detailed analysis data of Bitcoin, the market price of Bitcoin BTC is fluctuating around 95,400 points.
The 4-hour market chart shows that the price of Bitcoin is rising, and it is fluctuating and rising nearby. According to the energy column shown in the attached figure, Bitcoin is in a clear upward trend. The currency price MACD and BOLL continue to fluctuate, and you can try to short at a high level.
Today's suggestions are as follows:
Short Bitcoin BTC94800--94500
Target 93800 ----92800 to stop profit.
Fundamentals:
BTC's STH MVRV seems to be at a turning point, which may boost or sell BTC
Options traders have increased hedging activities before Trump's inauguration.
Bitcoin [BTC] is at a crossroads before President Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. That’s not all, though, as a key valuation metric, STH (short-term holder) MVRV has also retreated to a critical point ;
Is Another “Trump Pump” Possible?
At press time, STH realized price is $86,000. Considering the STH MVRV level, this could be a bullish trigger for BTC.
“Currently, STH realized price is $86,800. If demand continues until Trump’s inauguration, STH RP could rise to $90,000. Even if the president fulfills some of the promises he made to voters early in his term, this could be a strong bullish trigger.”
The attached chart shows that STH MVRV rebounded to the average level in January 2024. After that, BTC’s price rose 88% to $72,000. This also coincides with the approval of a spot BTC ETF in the United States, suggesting that it could be repeated if Trump makes any bullish statements about the industry ;
Conversely, historically, STH MVRV falling below the average level indicates a long-term downward trend or consolidation in BTC’s price. This could happen if BTC’s price falls below the STH cost basis, which at the time of writing is $88,000 ;
Technical analysis;
“BTC price is now trading around 7% above the STH cost basis of $88,135. If the price settles below this level, it could indicate weakening sentiment among new investors, which is often a turning point in market trends.” ;
In short, if BTC defends $88,000 before or after Trump’s inauguration, a strong rally could be on the horizon.
However, a break below $88,000 could trigger panic selling from the STH herd, which could send the cryptocurrency further lower ;
In the options market, traders have been pricing in a negative to slightly bullish outlook around the inauguration. The 24-hour change in the 25RR (25-Delta Risk Reversal) illustrates this.
The January 17 and 24 option expiry indices were both negative, highlighting an increase in hedging activity or put premiums (bearish bets to cover downside risk);
For the January 31 expiry, the 25RR was slightly positive at 0.31, indicating a slight premium for calls (bullish bets).
Simply put, option traders expect large volatility and potential declines before the event, followed by some stability afterward.
If you are interested in my analysis,
you can leave me a comment
From the detailed analysis data of Bitcoin, the market price of Bitcoin BTC is fluctuating around 95,400 points.
The 4-hour market chart shows that the price of Bitcoin is rising, and it is fluctuating and rising nearby. According to the energy column shown in the attached figure, Bitcoin is in a clear upward trend. The currency price MACD and BOLL continue to fluctuate, and you can try to short at a high level.
Today's suggestions are as follows:
Short Bitcoin BTC94800--94500
Target 93800 ----92800 to stop profit.
Fundamentals:
BTC's STH MVRV seems to be at a turning point, which may boost or sell BTC
Options traders have increased hedging activities before Trump's inauguration.
Bitcoin [BTC] is at a crossroads before President Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. That’s not all, though, as a key valuation metric, STH (short-term holder) MVRV has also retreated to a critical point ;
Is Another “Trump Pump” Possible?
At press time, STH realized price is $86,000. Considering the STH MVRV level, this could be a bullish trigger for BTC.
“Currently, STH realized price is $86,800. If demand continues until Trump’s inauguration, STH RP could rise to $90,000. Even if the president fulfills some of the promises he made to voters early in his term, this could be a strong bullish trigger.”
The attached chart shows that STH MVRV rebounded to the average level in January 2024. After that, BTC’s price rose 88% to $72,000. This also coincides with the approval of a spot BTC ETF in the United States, suggesting that it could be repeated if Trump makes any bullish statements about the industry ;
Conversely, historically, STH MVRV falling below the average level indicates a long-term downward trend or consolidation in BTC’s price. This could happen if BTC’s price falls below the STH cost basis, which at the time of writing is $88,000 ;
Technical analysis;
“BTC price is now trading around 7% above the STH cost basis of $88,135. If the price settles below this level, it could indicate weakening sentiment among new investors, which is often a turning point in market trends.” ;
In short, if BTC defends $88,000 before or after Trump’s inauguration, a strong rally could be on the horizon.
However, a break below $88,000 could trigger panic selling from the STH herd, which could send the cryptocurrency further lower ;
In the options market, traders have been pricing in a negative to slightly bullish outlook around the inauguration. The 24-hour change in the 25RR (25-Delta Risk Reversal) illustrates this.
The January 17 and 24 option expiry indices were both negative, highlighting an increase in hedging activity or put premiums (bearish bets to cover downside risk);
For the January 31 expiry, the 25RR was slightly positive at 0.31, indicating a slight premium for calls (bullish bets).
Simply put, option traders expect large volatility and potential declines before the event, followed by some stability afterward.
If you are interested in my analysis,
you can leave me a comment
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