The Bearish Scenario for BTC
We have a head and shoulders with a higher left shoulder and a target around $5650.
My Elliot Wave count shows an current wave 5 could extend to a ratio of 1.618 to wave 1 giving a downside target of $8700. (Corrected extension---chart shows incorrect fib extension)
We have a 100% retracement from 25 Nov breakout at $8360 and I would expect strong support here.
We furthermore have bottoming support at $5830 created at 13th Nov.
An ascending trend line created by bottoms on 16th July and 14th September intersects the weakly tested downtrend line from 17th Dec at around $5700 on the 7th Jan.
The next support zone is at $3000--3500.
I therefore feel that BTC will breakdown to one of the following targets, before reversing into an uptrend. Whether this is a complete reversal or a 'return to normal' bounce is unknown to me.
T1 = 8700
T2 = 6170
Such a significant move could well create over performance to the downside. I am planning to place scaled orders to buy between these targets and optimistically lower.
My Elliot Wave count shows an current wave 5 could extend to a ratio of 1.618 to wave 1 giving a downside target of $8700. (Corrected extension---chart shows incorrect fib extension)
We have a 100% retracement from 25 Nov breakout at $8360 and I would expect strong support here.
We furthermore have bottoming support at $5830 created at 13th Nov.
An ascending trend line created by bottoms on 16th July and 14th September intersects the weakly tested downtrend line from 17th Dec at around $5700 on the 7th Jan.
The next support zone is at $3000--3500.
I therefore feel that BTC will breakdown to one of the following targets, before reversing into an uptrend. Whether this is a complete reversal or a 'return to normal' bounce is unknown to me.
T1 = 8700
T2 = 6170
Such a significant move could well create over performance to the downside. I am planning to place scaled orders to buy between these targets and optimistically lower.
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