BTC: 11-year trendline that no one seems to mention
Why does no one seem to be talking about this 11-year BTC trendline?
I've only been in crypto/BTC for 4 months. I found what seems to be a very important trendline on the large timeframes, but haven't seen anyone discussing it yet. Most discussions are regarding logarithmic growth curves on this timeframe.
Someone drew a trendline in the BTC corrections we had for the last 3 months (shoutout to Mikuji Crypto on Youtube), starting at the ATH in January, the low around March 1st and the recent low at USD 47000. This got me wondering where this trendline came from. It seemed like quite a random line.
I zoomed out and found that this line seems to have played a major role for the last 11 years. The story seems to go as follows:
If you have looked at price action breaking through trendlines on a small timeframe, you can see similar behaviour of the price coming up to a line, pulling back, then going through and then bouncing on the line a few times before continuing.
With this knowledge, the recent BTC price behaviour makes sense and should, in my opinion, be nothing to be worried about.
Prediction:
I actually think we will be visiting this line one more time around USD 51200 in the coming week(s) to finish a big W/double bottom, which will then propel us to a cycle peak. This would also make sense in a way as we would retest the neckline W/double top that was formed around USD 50000 around April 24. Also, this coincides with the 0.236 fib level of the whole retracement.
Speculating a bit more: Possibly, we could then see a similar scenario to 2013, where BTC comes down from that peak (e.g. at USD 100,000) to form support on top of the trendline towards another cycle peak.
If this were to play out, you could say that this cycle, after the 2017 ATH we would have a triple cycle peak. First peak would have been in 2019, second peak should be in the coming months and then we may see a much higher third peak late this year or next year.
Potentially, longterm, BTC may even stay above this trendline for good, seeing that this is the 4th time it is trying to get above it. Or maybe that is just wishful thinking.
I've only been in crypto/BTC for 4 months. I found what seems to be a very important trendline on the large timeframes, but haven't seen anyone discussing it yet. Most discussions are regarding logarithmic growth curves on this timeframe.
Someone drew a trendline in the BTC corrections we had for the last 3 months (shoutout to Mikuji Crypto on Youtube), starting at the ATH in January, the low around March 1st and the recent low at USD 47000. This got me wondering where this trendline came from. It seemed like quite a random line.
I zoomed out and found that this line seems to have played a major role for the last 11 years. The story seems to go as follows:
- BTC was first rejected by this line in the 2011 cycle, with its cycle peak only peaking above slightly, but unable to make support.
- Then, in 2013, BTC broke through the trendline with force with its first run-up, then made support on the line before moving up to its second peak above the line.
- After coming down in 2014, it dropped just below in 2015, where it kept moving along the line without being able to break through. You can see some attempts where it touches the line.
- In 2017, it was finally able to break through and make some support on it around USD 1900 before going towards a cycle peak.
- Also, looking at how the price followed the line closely in 2016, it makes sense that we only saw a more slow run-up in 2017 and only a single peak. The price didn't have enough momentum when it broke through.
- In 2018, after coming down towards the line, it fell like a brick, just at the point where it reached the line.
- Another attempt to break through was made in 2019, but it failed to do so, resulting in a relatively small peak.
- In 2020 another steep run-up started and now at the start of 2021, BTC reached the trendline, pulled back (January correction) and then broke through.
- Ever since breaking through end of January, the corrections we have seen are nothing more than BTC making support on this trendline on a large timeframe.
- The recent low at USD 47000 broke back down through the trendline, but was immediately bought up. I also found it interesting how the price dropped like USD 2200 (~4.5%) at that spot without even a retest, maybe because it broke through both the bull run support line (green trendline in my chart) and this 11-year line.
If you have looked at price action breaking through trendlines on a small timeframe, you can see similar behaviour of the price coming up to a line, pulling back, then going through and then bouncing on the line a few times before continuing.
With this knowledge, the recent BTC price behaviour makes sense and should, in my opinion, be nothing to be worried about.
Prediction:
I actually think we will be visiting this line one more time around USD 51200 in the coming week(s) to finish a big W/double bottom, which will then propel us to a cycle peak. This would also make sense in a way as we would retest the neckline W/double top that was formed around USD 50000 around April 24. Also, this coincides with the 0.236 fib level of the whole retracement.
Speculating a bit more: Possibly, we could then see a similar scenario to 2013, where BTC comes down from that peak (e.g. at USD 100,000) to form support on top of the trendline towards another cycle peak.
If this were to play out, you could say that this cycle, after the 2017 ATH we would have a triple cycle peak. First peak would have been in 2019, second peak should be in the coming months and then we may see a much higher third peak late this year or next year.
Potentially, longterm, BTC may even stay above this trendline for good, seeing that this is the 4th time it is trying to get above it. Or maybe that is just wishful thinking.
บันทึก
Note that I chose the weekly timeframe for this chart. If you do the same exercise, but choose the monthly timeframe some things are a bit clearer. For example, you can then draw the line to be touching the cycle top of 2013 when looking at candle close/opens.On the other hand, on these timescales a small move already has a big impact, so it is difficult to get the exact position.
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