Broadening Formations and Order Blocks
Last cycle price bottomed 59 days before halving. I expect lots of traders to be aware of this fact and buy around that time which is around February 16. Given this knowledge I propose buying before this day in order to "Front Run" those traders. If you expect a huge wave of buyers are coming in anticipation of the halving you want to buy before them because they will push up the price making it more expensive for you later on.
Additionally, at the start of the year there tends to be lots of new institutional buying due to rebalancing and new allocations from larger players. This is why I have highlighted the region from Dec 28 to Feb 16 as the key time to pay attention to look for a bottoming formation. It encompasses some time just before the start of the year that gets you ahead of institutional money and about a month and a half before Feb 16 which is 59 days before the halving, this gets you ahead of Traders buying in anticipation of Halving.
During this Date Range I will look for a bottoming formation which is a sharp rejection from some of the Order Blocks in Blue OR sharp rejection from Broadening Formation support lines (in downward sloping in blue, there are 3 of them.) For the latter it does not necessarily have to touch the support line once it drops below a prior touch of that line you can start looking for reversal patterns.
Using OBs there are 3 main levels just under 20k, 15k-17k, and just under 12k. The OB just under 20k that includes the low from March corresponds to a fib retracement between .618 and .786 which is the target entry zone after a market structure shift which occurred at the start of the year once we started seeing Quarters with Higher Lows and Higher High instead of Quarters with Lower Highs.
However Smart May want to manipulate the price lower to get better fills. The 1 Week OB in Blue just under 17k and in Bold indicates its high degree of validity because it has not been revisited and has a FVG just above it (because there is no overlap between that Red Weekly Candle and the 2nd Weekly Candle after that). It seems even more valid because there was a very strong markup on the 2nd Weekly Candle after that. There is very strong evidence to suggest this was a Smart Money accumulation level too because of the Markdown --> Accumulation --> Markup pattern that played out. Overall, just under 17k is a zone with strong Institutional Demand. It could include a drop to just under 15.4k to sweep the lows as there tends to be retail liquidity around swing lows.
A third possibility is just under 12k to touch the lowest Order Block, which is the last Red 1 Month Candle before a strong rally that left behind a FVG. This would also correspond to lowest broadening formation support line.
In summary between Dec 28 and Feb 16 I will look for a reaction at these key price levels just under 20k, 15k-17k, and just under 12k to buy Bitcoin. One strategy could be to buy 20% of your desired position at just under 20k, 60% at 16k, and the remaining 20% at just under 12k if it reaches. Which level do you think is most likely? How would you go about buying it?
Additionally, at the start of the year there tends to be lots of new institutional buying due to rebalancing and new allocations from larger players. This is why I have highlighted the region from Dec 28 to Feb 16 as the key time to pay attention to look for a bottoming formation. It encompasses some time just before the start of the year that gets you ahead of institutional money and about a month and a half before Feb 16 which is 59 days before the halving, this gets you ahead of Traders buying in anticipation of Halving.
During this Date Range I will look for a bottoming formation which is a sharp rejection from some of the Order Blocks in Blue OR sharp rejection from Broadening Formation support lines (in downward sloping in blue, there are 3 of them.) For the latter it does not necessarily have to touch the support line once it drops below a prior touch of that line you can start looking for reversal patterns.
Using OBs there are 3 main levels just under 20k, 15k-17k, and just under 12k. The OB just under 20k that includes the low from March corresponds to a fib retracement between .618 and .786 which is the target entry zone after a market structure shift which occurred at the start of the year once we started seeing Quarters with Higher Lows and Higher High instead of Quarters with Lower Highs.
However Smart May want to manipulate the price lower to get better fills. The 1 Week OB in Blue just under 17k and in Bold indicates its high degree of validity because it has not been revisited and has a FVG just above it (because there is no overlap between that Red Weekly Candle and the 2nd Weekly Candle after that). It seems even more valid because there was a very strong markup on the 2nd Weekly Candle after that. There is very strong evidence to suggest this was a Smart Money accumulation level too because of the Markdown --> Accumulation --> Markup pattern that played out. Overall, just under 17k is a zone with strong Institutional Demand. It could include a drop to just under 15.4k to sweep the lows as there tends to be retail liquidity around swing lows.
A third possibility is just under 12k to touch the lowest Order Block, which is the last Red 1 Month Candle before a strong rally that left behind a FVG. This would also correspond to lowest broadening formation support line.
In summary between Dec 28 and Feb 16 I will look for a reaction at these key price levels just under 20k, 15k-17k, and just under 12k to buy Bitcoin. One strategy could be to buy 20% of your desired position at just under 20k, 60% at 16k, and the remaining 20% at just under 12k if it reaches. Which level do you think is most likely? How would you go about buying it?
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