Well, Well Well, Can Bitcoin Sustain Its New All-Time High?
It's been a while, TradingView. I've really stepped away from markets for the most part to focus on other things. It's been quite refreshing. This won't be long. I'm popping in to share a couple of quick observations.
For one, Bitcoin has managed to break out to a new significant ATH, so far a little under 30% above the previous high around 73k. My speculation has long been that Bitcoin is unlikely to SUSTAIN a significant new all-time high above the previous bull-market high near 70k. This is close to being invalidated. Full invalidation would require Bitcoin to just keep going, and 100k is the next clear hurdle. Right now, it's encountering some resistance, just 5% from that major target. Keep in mind, Bitcoin, is not really outperforming major stock indexes (yet). It's simply caught up after a period of underperformance.
The recent upswing in price seems to have been catalyzed by Trump's second election to office in the U.S. Interesting, considering he used to look down on cryptocurrencies and suddenly flip-flopped during his recent run for office. This seems to be a bit of an emotional and speculative reaction from investors. Buyers expect further price appreciation with increased adoption and decreased available supply. "Adoption" simply means buying and holding these days, not using it as a currency. This is clear when looking at this graph: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount
Bitcoin active addresses continue to stagnate. People are just buying and holding, and it is often the same entities doing so. The ETFs skew this data as well, since these coins are held in concentrated addresses, even though many more people may be holding "Bitcoin" through an ETF. That brings me to something else: Options. Now traders can exercise options on Bitcoin ETF's. This is dangerous, and I think should be treated with some caution. This can increase the amount of price manipulation, as if it wasn't already manipulated.
As for me, I closed my shorts at a loss around 63.8k. I saw that Bitcoin was unlikely to drop further, and instead break out of its flag formation to the upside. This ended up being the safer move. Now, I've slowly begun scaling back into a short. I've added at
89K, 93k, and now 94.8k. The chart is demonstrating some divergences. The Ultimate Oscillator is actually declining as price goes up. 
Today's "breakout" is so far on meager volume, but my guess is that this increases should price continue towards 100k this week. In the above chart, confirmation of a local top might be the breakdown of my orange trendline.
If price stalls here, it can fall all the way down to the breakout point (the long broadening wedge)
It can also simply fall as shallow as $82-83k and then resume its climb. Long term, I'm not a fan of this asset as it represents something dystopian and sinister to me these days. I acknowledge it doesn't represent this to everyone. Regardless of your position on Bitcoin, I wish you luck!
This is not meant as financial advice and for speculation only!
-Victor Cobra
For one, Bitcoin has managed to break out to a new significant ATH, so far a little under 30% above the previous high around 73k. My speculation has long been that Bitcoin is unlikely to SUSTAIN a significant new all-time high above the previous bull-market high near 70k. This is close to being invalidated. Full invalidation would require Bitcoin to just keep going, and 100k is the next clear hurdle. Right now, it's encountering some resistance, just 5% from that major target. Keep in mind, Bitcoin, is not really outperforming major stock indexes (yet). It's simply caught up after a period of underperformance.
The recent upswing in price seems to have been catalyzed by Trump's second election to office in the U.S. Interesting, considering he used to look down on cryptocurrencies and suddenly flip-flopped during his recent run for office. This seems to be a bit of an emotional and speculative reaction from investors. Buyers expect further price appreciation with increased adoption and decreased available supply. "Adoption" simply means buying and holding these days, not using it as a currency. This is clear when looking at this graph: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount
Bitcoin active addresses continue to stagnate. People are just buying and holding, and it is often the same entities doing so. The ETFs skew this data as well, since these coins are held in concentrated addresses, even though many more people may be holding "Bitcoin" through an ETF. That brings me to something else: Options. Now traders can exercise options on Bitcoin ETF's. This is dangerous, and I think should be treated with some caution. This can increase the amount of price manipulation, as if it wasn't already manipulated.
As for me, I closed my shorts at a loss around 63.8k. I saw that Bitcoin was unlikely to drop further, and instead break out of its flag formation to the upside. This ended up being the safer move. Now, I've slowly begun scaling back into a short. I've added at
89K, 93k, and now 94.8k. The chart is demonstrating some divergences. The Ultimate Oscillator is actually declining as price goes up. Today's "breakout" is so far on meager volume, but my guess is that this increases should price continue towards 100k this week. In the above chart, confirmation of a local top might be the breakdown of my orange trendline.
If price stalls here, it can fall all the way down to the breakout point (the long broadening wedge)
It can also simply fall as shallow as $82-83k and then resume its climb. Long term, I'm not a fan of this asset as it represents something dystopian and sinister to me these days. I acknowledge it doesn't represent this to everyone. Regardless of your position on Bitcoin, I wish you luck!
This is not meant as financial advice and for speculation only!
-Victor Cobra
บันทึก
Bitcoin went up a little higher before correcting. Added a little to my short at 98.6k or so. Overall, I'm now in profit, but it may be short lived. There is a confluence of supports from here down to 89k. Here is the current structure: บันทึก
You can see that Bitcoin broke down from the most recent rising support, slowing momentum a little for the time being. The light blue trendline is actually the reclaimed broadening wedge support from the yearly structure. If Bitcoin corrects more deeply, that's an area to watch for demand. บันทึก
You can actually see that this rising wedge pattern has been forming for roughly TWO YEARS. Zoomed way out, you can see that failure to sustain this rally could result in a pretty quick throwback. On the other hand, bullish traders can aim for the top of the wedge, giving a price target potentially above 200k. 200k would still only be slightly less than 3x the previous all-time high. การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Added to short at 95.3k. Showing signs of exuberance, especially in altcoins. It would honestly be hilarious if Bitcoin just never breaks 100k convincingly. But, there is a substantial chance it does. Just maybe not yet. Here are bearish and bullish projections, based on the broadening structure. บันทึก
So, Bitcoin is finally above 100K. This had been prophecied by many a trader the previous two cycles. Now we're finally here. So let's dive in. Just above 100k, there are likely a lot of longer term orders waiting to get filled. But, once those orders clear, there could be blue skies ahead, at least for another 30-50% upswing. However, there are some bearish considerations (and as someone who doesn't want to bet on this asset's upside, I'm generally taking short positions). I am not adding to my short here, but would add if we do see that 30-50% upswing. There's a possibility of a top here, if price cannot push above that broken uptrend (orange). There is also a bearish divergence brewing on the daily chart. บันทึก
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Welp. บันทึก
A break below this uptrend and we could get another selling cascade. The next major support would be in the $89-90k region. บันทึก
That blue trendline is also important to watch. บันทึก
This trendline has been really hard to break. Let's see. บันทึก
Can't believe trendlines still seem to work, even with all this AI-based strategy entering the markets. บันทึก
We'll see if this breakdown gets bought, like the last one. บันทึก
Wow, no single 15 min candle has been able to close below. Still strong buying behavior. ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง
Closed out the short position. Support continues to hold. May want to test higher levels - perhaps up to that top trendline, currently near 111k บันทึก
Lmao of course right after I close my short, there's another breakdown attempt. let's see if this one sustains. Can easily head to 89K if it does. 
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การนำเสนอที่เกี่ยวข้อง
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน