Whales not nearly as bullish as retail

28 ก.ย. 2023

Yesterday, when Bitcoin approached the resistance at $26,800, we warned that another fakeout to the upside might be upon us due to the whales liquidating their positions and redistributing coins to retail. Shortly after that, Bitcoin broke above the resistance for a very brief time and then fell to around $26,100. Interestingly, the move-up coincided with Gary Gensler testifying in front of U.S. Congress, which media portrayed as U.S. Congress pushing the SEC to speed up approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. That is a perfect example of what we have been talking about in regard to any announcement of news related to Bitcoin Spot ETF (with Bitcoin initially soaring in response and later giving up gains). Though, in our view, each new announcement seems to have a lesser impact on the price than the previous one. In addition to that, there was no change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with the balance exceeding 1,000 BTC, which seems to confirm our assessment of fakeout and redistribution. Consequently, we have no reason to change our bias and stay bearish on Bitcoin. In order to maintain this stance, we want to see technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic decline on the daily time chart and a bearish crossover in MACD on the weekly time frame. On top of that, in the case of another fakeout (if it happens), we want to see Bitcoin struggle to break above the resistance near $27,500.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of RSI. A breakout below the support will bolster a bearish case in the short term.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of MACD that is approaching the midpoint. A breakout below the midpoint will be strongly bearish for Bitcoin.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

29 ก.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

We saw another breakout above $26,800 yesterday, coinciding with the price retracement to the 50-day SMA and breakout above it. Now, this level acts as an important support. Therefore, we will take two or three regular trading days to see if the price will hold above this level; a failure to do so would bolster a bearish thesis. In addition to that, we want to see MACD fail to break (fully) above the midpoint on the daily chart.

Contrarily, to support a thesis about the trend turning increasingly neutral (and potentially bullish). We would want to see the price continue higher, breaking above the resistance near $27,500. Furthermore, we want to see MACD break above zero on the daily time frame.

Illustration 1.03

The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a price retracement toward the 50-day SMA.

Illustration 1.04

Illustration 1.04 displays the daily chart of MACD attempting to enter a bullish area.