2018.03.30 Bitcoin's Last Stand @ $5.8-5.6k (BTC, 4hr)

30 มี.ค. 2018

The bullish possibility with BTC last week was finally disproved, with BTC retracing past 7.2k. Bulls will have to wait a bit longer (I am a long-term bull.)

All paths are now converging on the $5.8-5.6k region, where Bitcoin will make a last stand. A close below 5k would mean 3k is the likely next stop, which actually looks feasible for the W-X-Y on the 1-Day chart (below).

Digging a bit deeper, the wave (iv) retrace could have gone as high as 8.2k, but the current shallow retrace aligns with the alternation theory with wave (ii). We will know when it heads back down once we cross 6.6k.

BTC 1-Day chart:

30 มี.ค. 2018

บันทึก

Cliff Notes:

Drop past 6.6k = 5.8k target
Drop past 5k = 3k target
Drop past 1.7k = booted back to square one, price-wise
Rise past 8.2k = Bulls are back; TBD

1 เม.ย. 2018

บันทึก

The story still stands. Bulls successfully defended 6.6k, leading to a bounce, but identified as still in corrective mode of the overall trend down. We are back in 6.6k region, and it should not hold this time.

5.8k fight should happen in around a day or so from now.

12 เม.ย. 2018

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

Target did not materialize and fundamentally, sentiment has shifted.

Perhaps the drop to 6.4k range on 4/1 was the drop we were waiting for, and never reached 5.8k.

We break out of bearish zones by reaching mid-7,000's. We shall see what happens, but this story has concluded.