What if ETF gets Declined - possible outcome

24 ก.ค. 2018

Hi guys, this is my first chart here on TV, so please have mercy with me if it proves wrong ;)

I'd like to enter the market, but before I do I've been observing this market for some time and this is the result of my long term observation.

I think the 5800 was a good time to buy, but I think there might be even better prices in 2018. It all depends on the outcome of those ETFs, which currently drives the price up. Speculative expectation, fomo...

If SEC does not approve (and it's the fundamental base of my idea) there will be an immediate sell-off which will very soon break the 5.8k support and reach to the 4.4-4.9k area. I know there are people calling for 3k, 2k etc, but I think it will not correct that far. The reason is that this market looks very resilient and my bet is that there will be enough buyers in the 4k area who will not let the price go that far. Also due to mining cost etc...They will just not let BTC collapse. That's my opinion.
After this V shape low, which I expect close to end of Aug there will be a long period of going sideways in the 5k range, similar to 2014 crash fractal. What will happen next is hard to tell, but based on that fractal there should be another drop, the final one, and after that the next bull season will start.

If SEC approves then we might shoot way higher. People will then realize that ETF approval itself isn't enough to actually make the institutions start pouring their $$$ to BTC, price will be relatively high (so not so attractive) and not sustainable just by the money already in it and it will then slowly correct back to ~6k-5.8k level so we will have a double-bottom. But I don't expect BTC to correct further in case of ETF approval, but my opinion is that it will correct.

I love you all guys and wish you all best of luck and success in trading.

Zoomed out view: