Long term BTC cycle and trend projections
While everyone now are focused on where Bitcoin is heading in short term, it is worth a look where it could likely go after the next halving. Based on previous tops we get 3 trend lines each hitting next halving's key areas of support/resistance, which can be seen on the chart with middle purple (2013-2018 tops) covering both Summer 2021 retrace and where BTC did "dead cat bounce" in 2022, creating together with 2013 tops trend line our dynamic price action area for current Bear cycle.
Our minimum target at 200WMA has been already hit, but there a lot of reasons to safely assume it is not where BTC will stop its fall with the likely area where it should slow down for the remainder of this Bear cycle around 11-12k. Price action in 2023 and before 2024 halving should not excite anyone as we are likely be still suffering from this year's global economic crisis fallout, only likely going anywhere near previous ATH the closer we will get to the new halving and increase media chatter on crypto. Traders are likely to front run this hence I think we might see a stronger move up around that time.
I have no doubt the next wave of hype surrounding digital assets space will come as more and more big companies adopt blockchain technology over time and likely regulation introduced by 2025 will give retail investors more confidence in this risk-on market. We can probably still expect some sort of 2 phases of Bull cycle where FOMO hits high gear, followed by a stronger pullback like we experienced in Summer 2021 (hard to tell what could be the catalyst then at this point) and final culmination push up. I have no doubt many will be calling 500k or even higher prices for Bitcoin once it breaks early on through 100k (dream target for most in 2021), but based on my calculations on S2F ratio on chain data, minimum price Bitcoin should achieve will be around 150k with max top closer to 200k. I should be able to improve my estimation after the halving. You can find full write up on S2F ratio and how I find value with it in my free newsletter, link included in signature.
At that time some will already expect a new Bear cycle to start soon and the likely first drop will be to our orange trend line connecting 2018-2021 tops residing near 120-125k where I would expect a "dead cat bounce" move confirming for most that yes indeed bearish sentiment is taking over. Again our current purple line of support would be the area where I would consider the lowest Bitcoin could fall during that 2026 Bear cycle sitting around 58-60k.
Please also note that I am not showing here 2018 Bear cycle that did a "dead cat bounce" from the first purple line that serves now as possible bottom for 2022 capitulation and all initial sell offs on Bitcoin from their ATH's until now are slightly smaller since the rate at which Bitcoins prices goes up each cycle also slowing down.
Our minimum target at 200WMA has been already hit, but there a lot of reasons to safely assume it is not where BTC will stop its fall with the likely area where it should slow down for the remainder of this Bear cycle around 11-12k. Price action in 2023 and before 2024 halving should not excite anyone as we are likely be still suffering from this year's global economic crisis fallout, only likely going anywhere near previous ATH the closer we will get to the new halving and increase media chatter on crypto. Traders are likely to front run this hence I think we might see a stronger move up around that time.
I have no doubt the next wave of hype surrounding digital assets space will come as more and more big companies adopt blockchain technology over time and likely regulation introduced by 2025 will give retail investors more confidence in this risk-on market. We can probably still expect some sort of 2 phases of Bull cycle where FOMO hits high gear, followed by a stronger pullback like we experienced in Summer 2021 (hard to tell what could be the catalyst then at this point) and final culmination push up. I have no doubt many will be calling 500k or even higher prices for Bitcoin once it breaks early on through 100k (dream target for most in 2021), but based on my calculations on S2F ratio on chain data, minimum price Bitcoin should achieve will be around 150k with max top closer to 200k. I should be able to improve my estimation after the halving. You can find full write up on S2F ratio and how I find value with it in my free newsletter, link included in signature.
At that time some will already expect a new Bear cycle to start soon and the likely first drop will be to our orange trend line connecting 2018-2021 tops residing near 120-125k where I would expect a "dead cat bounce" move confirming for most that yes indeed bearish sentiment is taking over. Again our current purple line of support would be the area where I would consider the lowest Bitcoin could fall during that 2026 Bear cycle sitting around 58-60k.
Please also note that I am not showing here 2018 Bear cycle that did a "dead cat bounce" from the first purple line that serves now as possible bottom for 2022 capitulation and all initial sell offs on Bitcoin from their ATH's until now are slightly smaller since the rate at which Bitcoins prices goes up each cycle also slowing down.
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