What goes up must come down.

24 ม.ค. 2021

BTC has taken a ride since 2015, I watched from the sidelines as more and more people became overcome with the excitement of this new currency. The “gap” up’s when it took hold and blasted off to north of 20,000 then 30k then 40k, were unprecedented. I’ve been involved with investments since 1997 and I have seen nothing like this and won’t ever again. I do think bitcoin will eventually make the 100,000 mark, when that happens is any bodies guess. Healthy investments do not skyrocket to all time highs and stay there like this seems to have done. The “gaps” this needs to fill are down in the 11,000 range I believe? If these “gaps” per say don’t get filled, any move higher becomes incredibly dangerous for a landslide melt down. Every market in the world has seen this sort of behavior. Here is how big money managers think “buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high” I know that may seem Cliché, but it’s true in any investment market. What holds this coin price at its highs is continuous buying but not only continuous buying but a stable source of new buyers. When bitcoin reaches a high of highs after racing upwards that of a Saturn rocket it will surely endure the consequences of a parabolic climb which is a generational meltdown. We must remeber that China has been mining some 80% of the worlds bitcoin over the past 10 years..if this doesn’t scare anybody I don’t know where you live. If any populous or economy invests more than an alternative invenstment weighting in bitcoin or any other speculative investment, they risk destroying their entire economic system and collapsing. If one doesn’t see the automatic buying and selling movement and electronic support countermeasures big miners or holders of the coin take to ensure this parabolic soar to inevitable highs you aren’t looking close enough. Everybody risks losing and losing big. It seems the masses want bitcoin to reach enormous highs, preaching it will replace modern currency driving the price upwards of 100,000 per coin. I am a realist and while I do believe bitcoin and other crypto currencies will achieve great value and use in the future it will not replace the worlds fiat currencies. Be careful and realistic. If you’ve been hoddling your coins for years you have done very well for yourself yes, however, remeber how one “locks” in profits, they sell and hold “cash” or what ever stable fiat currency they live with. This is not a free ride and not everybody running this massive machine has good intentions. If China decides to capture and lock in profit at any given time, it will cause a cataclysmic disaster and melt down of an entire system. Don’t be caught holding the bag at the top. When PayPal said they were all in processing bitcoin it seemingly shot north with supersonic speeds. People who wouldn’t invent in an index fund for it was too much risk are now investing millions in something that seems too good to be true. I am not saying bitcoin will not be useful or even saying it won’t survive, I am simply saying be CAFEFUL and REALISTIC. This bubble has consequences just like the real estate financial bubble of the early 2000’s. The USA had the means at that time to inject trillions into a collapsing system...we have no more levers to pull or safety valves to open. I predict a gap cover in the 10,000-11,500 range before then skyrocketing to new highs in the 40-50,000 range before starting the fibbinaci cycle all over again. The last up cycle will be very evident by which the volume of sellers will spike to all time highs within minutes. That may be next month next year or in 5 years IDK....but it will happen. The stock market has stop gaps to ensure panic selling doesn’t destroy a healthy market, bitcoin has no such stop gaps or safety valves to ensure complete and total collapse of a system. And...the most important one. Bitcoin has no centralized governing body or enforcement to ensure criminals can’t steal or destroy a system in which so many have put faith. It’s the ultimate Dichotomy, Bitcoin excites so many because of its decentralized governing systems however those same Reasons we all “love to love” bitcoin could very well be the same reasons it sets up to cause global economic catastrophe. My prediction again is this...falls to fill CME gaps with fake trend reversals costing traders millions chasing the bottom but. Dollar cost average your buys and lock in your gains. 11,000 back up to 50,000 then back down to 24,000 before pushing up to 75,000. 100,000 is the price that triggers a global sell off meltdown and bring financial devistation to the greedy. Be careful out there. Diversify and have a plan.