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BTC/USD Do not Short an Upward Trending Market!
ที่อัปเดต:
Should you buy BTC or sell BTC at this moment?
Let's take a look at the longer time frame first to determine the trend and buying vs selling momentum.
CCI weekly chart is clearly indicating buying pressure is in an upward momentum meaning we are still in an uptrend.
When you are in an uptrend and you're thinking about placing an order you should almost always go in the direction of the trend.
(Unfortunately I cant post images yet as I'm not paying for the tradingview services as of now)
Now lets look at the daily. When we look at CCI here we can clearly see that it is still above 0 meaning that there's still more buying pressure vs selling pressure.
Again not a good sign to short.
Now lets look at the hourly.
Again the CCI shows there is immense buying pressure as it's over 100. We can see here that there was a long opportunity at the 6080 mark where CCI reversal was confirmed.
Is it too late to go long? I don't think it is but I think it's wise to get a good entry point when the buying pressure is reversing on the lower time frames.
When we look at the shorter time frames it looks like this will be around 6115. Given that this is a pretty high point compared to ATH -0.56% . I would advise to not use too much leverage as to make sure you don't get liquidated in case there is a strong correction. Corrections will likely not get any lower than 5600 so if your stoploss is below say 5550$ you can use leverage that will only liquidate your bet below 5550$.
This way you will maximize your profit potential.
If we see a big retracement, say price falls below 5900. You should watch the lower time frames closely to look for a reversal of momentum. At this point you will have a much more confident long bet and you can use more leverage as a consequence.
As for fundamental analysis , I'm looking to stay long for at least a week or two until segwit2x fork has happened as many people will be withdrawing their BTC for the guaranteed profit meaning there will be lower volume hours before and in general a strong upward movement leading up to it.
Let's take a look at the longer time frame first to determine the trend and buying vs selling momentum.
CCI weekly chart is clearly indicating buying pressure is in an upward momentum meaning we are still in an uptrend.
When you are in an uptrend and you're thinking about placing an order you should almost always go in the direction of the trend.
(Unfortunately I cant post images yet as I'm not paying for the tradingview services as of now)
Now lets look at the daily. When we look at CCI here we can clearly see that it is still above 0 meaning that there's still more buying pressure vs selling pressure.
Again not a good sign to short.
Now lets look at the hourly.
Again the CCI shows there is immense buying pressure as it's over 100. We can see here that there was a long opportunity at the 6080 mark where CCI reversal was confirmed.
Is it too late to go long? I don't think it is but I think it's wise to get a good entry point when the buying pressure is reversing on the lower time frames.
When we look at the shorter time frames it looks like this will be around 6115. Given that this is a pretty high point compared to ATH -0.56% . I would advise to not use too much leverage as to make sure you don't get liquidated in case there is a strong correction. Corrections will likely not get any lower than 5600 so if your stoploss is below say 5550$ you can use leverage that will only liquidate your bet below 5550$.
This way you will maximize your profit potential.
If we see a big retracement, say price falls below 5900. You should watch the lower time frames closely to look for a reversal of momentum. At this point you will have a much more confident long bet and you can use more leverage as a consequence.
As for fundamental analysis , I'm looking to stay long for at least a week or two until segwit2x fork has happened as many people will be withdrawing their BTC for the guaranteed profit meaning there will be lower volume hours before and in general a strong upward movement leading up to it.
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UPDATE: As of right now bitcoin is trading at around 7000$. All the indicators I'm looking at show no sign of a reversal in momentum yet (CCI and moving averages)I'm keeping a close eye on the 4 hour and daily chart for trend reversal at which point I'll consider closing my open long position.
Is it still a good idea to go long? Probably as you'd still be going with the trend but be careful to watch the market closely when strong signs of reversal appear. Also keep in mind to not use too high leverage if you're margin trading. Currently my prediction is that there won't be any major correction until after segwit2x
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