Bitcoins Big Bears Shakeout Part 2, solving the puzzle again
ที่อัปเดต:
I have been reading my comments, just so funny when people pop up AFTER a move has happened. I know comments like these are part of the job here on TV and i accept that. But what i don't like, is when people are twisting facts.
If i did not know any better, i would say i was also looking down 2 weeks ago, when most of the market was waiting for that 6K break downwards. I think i was the only one here on TV who figured out the puzzle about what was going on in the 6K's. Funny thing is, there were some people who were making similar comments against me when i said we would probably go the 8K's and maybe even the 9K levels, to shake out bears. To make the market bullish again, but while i was telling that, the same kind of people were popping up and giving the same immature comments about how crazy i was thinking we would go up, because it was 100% clear we were going down.
The same was going on when we were around the 11.500 and i said the market would never make that big inverse H&S complete and we would go down. Even then people were telling me how crazy i was thinking the market would drop. This just shows how emotional this crypto market is, most people get bullish around the highs and bearish around the lows. It's just how the human mind works.
Anyway, we have already reached the first big step, that market sentiment is very bullish at the moment, alts are making crazy jumps again and allot of people or talking about the long term low is already set. As i mentioned a few weeks ago, that 8K was probably not enough and that we could go in the 9K prices to really make everyone bullish again.
I am still flat since i sold my long position from 6710 at 8250. Because i was waiting for better prices around 7500/7700 to get in again. But we did not even get close and the market just keeps on going up. But i see no conviction at all. The small rally we made from the 8200/8300 has reached 8550 and is in the making of a bull flag. This will be a test for the market, to show it's hand now. If we drop below the 8200/8100 it will probably be a confirmation that it has failed. Everything above 8250/8350 if just a pullback to test the former resistance. I don't have at TA patterns to show you and make predictions on what price we can reach in the next few days. The movement in the 7900/8200 range was to strange too see what the plan is.
But looking at the Alts, since they have made very big rallies, my guess is new money has entered the market to buy again. I don't have the numbers, but probably 95% (of retail money) buys Bitcoin to get in this market and not Tether. Which means the demand for Bitcoin has increased more than it usually does. This does explain the strange and sideways movement we have seen the past week. Since yesterday i thought i was seeing distribution around the 8200/8300 because was just moving so slowly and sideways. In my original 'Bitcoins big bear shakeout' i said if price would not pull back towards the 7500 that i would probably start to short it around 8800/9000. So for now that is still my game plan. But i won't try to catch the high, i will wait to see some hesitation and weakness before i open my first short position.Alt's have just been moving so strongly the last few days, i could be wrong with my theory or jumping in to soon. Another option is, that price could still bounce up from the 7000ish extending this correction much more.
I have a theory to why i think i know what is happening, but i won't share it (yet). I might tell you guys about it if things DO go as i think. But it's a pretty sick theory and i really hope i am wrong about it, because it's some deep sick conspiracy sh..t :)
Most important thing that could happen, is that volatility comes back into this market, because that would make my job much easier in giving direction AND targets.
If you appreciate my analysis, don't forget to like :)
If i did not know any better, i would say i was also looking down 2 weeks ago, when most of the market was waiting for that 6K break downwards. I think i was the only one here on TV who figured out the puzzle about what was going on in the 6K's. Funny thing is, there were some people who were making similar comments against me when i said we would probably go the 8K's and maybe even the 9K levels, to shake out bears. To make the market bullish again, but while i was telling that, the same kind of people were popping up and giving the same immature comments about how crazy i was thinking we would go up, because it was 100% clear we were going down.
The same was going on when we were around the 11.500 and i said the market would never make that big inverse H&S complete and we would go down. Even then people were telling me how crazy i was thinking the market would drop. This just shows how emotional this crypto market is, most people get bullish around the highs and bearish around the lows. It's just how the human mind works.
Anyway, we have already reached the first big step, that market sentiment is very bullish at the moment, alts are making crazy jumps again and allot of people or talking about the long term low is already set. As i mentioned a few weeks ago, that 8K was probably not enough and that we could go in the 9K prices to really make everyone bullish again.
I am still flat since i sold my long position from 6710 at 8250. Because i was waiting for better prices around 7500/7700 to get in again. But we did not even get close and the market just keeps on going up. But i see no conviction at all. The small rally we made from the 8200/8300 has reached 8550 and is in the making of a bull flag. This will be a test for the market, to show it's hand now. If we drop below the 8200/8100 it will probably be a confirmation that it has failed. Everything above 8250/8350 if just a pullback to test the former resistance. I don't have at TA patterns to show you and make predictions on what price we can reach in the next few days. The movement in the 7900/8200 range was to strange too see what the plan is.
But looking at the Alts, since they have made very big rallies, my guess is new money has entered the market to buy again. I don't have the numbers, but probably 95% (of retail money) buys Bitcoin to get in this market and not Tether. Which means the demand for Bitcoin has increased more than it usually does. This does explain the strange and sideways movement we have seen the past week. Since yesterday i thought i was seeing distribution around the 8200/8300 because was just moving so slowly and sideways. In my original 'Bitcoins big bear shakeout' i said if price would not pull back towards the 7500 that i would probably start to short it around 8800/9000. So for now that is still my game plan. But i won't try to catch the high, i will wait to see some hesitation and weakness before i open my first short position.Alt's have just been moving so strongly the last few days, i could be wrong with my theory or jumping in to soon. Another option is, that price could still bounce up from the 7000ish extending this correction much more.
I have a theory to why i think i know what is happening, but i won't share it (yet). I might tell you guys about it if things DO go as i think. But it's a pretty sick theory and i really hope i am wrong about it, because it's some deep sick conspiracy sh..t :)
Most important thing that could happen, is that volatility comes back into this market, because that would make my job much easier in giving direction AND targets.
If you appreciate my analysis, don't forget to like :)
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So far this bull flag looks quite stable and strong, indicating it could make another wave up. But it's almost weekend again and volume will start to drop, but i think retail money is more active during weekends, and since FOMO is high prices could go higher. The only target i can come up with looking at certain patterns is around 8700/8900. Doesn't mean it's a turning point but means it's a possible target. But when market is weak it tends to fall short.
For now a test would be a convincing break of the 8550.
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I know you are used to me answering all your comments, but i just can't keep up anymore. I will still try to answer all of them, but forgive me if i don't answer everyone. I am taking some time of this weekend. Will keep you updated when i can, but i try to stay out of this market during weekends, unless some strong moves appearบันทึกช่วยจำ
Bitcoin is showing some real strength now. This is a real confirmation it broke out of that consolidation phase. So absolutely I sign of weakness yet. Strong rally after that small bullish flag. Going even above some targets. This will most probably go even higher the coming days. Volatility is back and it could be the market is showing its hand now that it wants to go much higherบันทึกช่วยจำ
Most of what I wrote in the analysis was based on that the market was not THIS strong. It’s not there yet, that h&s could still happen. I mentioned in my previous analysis that I was not that convinced about knowing what was going on this time, in comparance to the accumulation in the 6k’s. I thought we would make small rally’s with half the size of this one. It’s starting to look more like the breakout rally we had between 7,500/8800 after the 6000 low. At least something to think aboutบันทึกช่วยจำ
That small sell off from the high to here is not a good sign. Was breaking out of that bull flag, was looking very strong and than out of nowhere this drop. No matter on which time frame you look, this type of candle indicates we go lower.How low is the question of course. Whatever happens price should stay above the 8200 for the short term. So this is the first signs of weakness i was talking about, what i was waiting for before even thinking about going short. Now i am going to wait and see what it will do. It could just make another attempt to go up from here, but than i will short it IF i see it will fail.
It did get sold off right into that big red resistance zone. Not even a chance to hang around that level in the form of a small bull flag.
This is just a very small move so it it's not ground breaking. But it is a very small confirmation of that theory of mine and if we would just continue down from here than i am afraid that i could be right. But still much MUCH to soon to say
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Here a s slightly similar move we had a few days ago at the 8450 high.Doing almost the same now
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This is now, also making that failed attempt to make a small inverse H&S, so if we follow that path we should make another small drop nowDon't forget to like guys
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We are now around that red resistance area, so we will probably drop towards the 8500ish. บันทึกช่วยจำ
I just saw the same thing i saw the previous weekend. Doesn't mean a big wave, but should mean a 100/200 point move, for now it says down. I have seen in only once now so i am not convinced yetบันทึกช่วยจำ
A small inverse H&S could bring it to that resistance level. That read area is the price to brake for the bulls now. A drop to 8400/8500 is still a healthy correction. Would not mean a bad thing necessarilyบันทึกช่วยจำ
I just opened a small short position at 8765, stop at 8680บันทึกช่วยจำ
Crap, stop at 8860 :) I really need to take a few days off :)บันทึกช่วยจำ
I have just added a few more 8810, have my stop at 8925
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So my stop went through, was looking good for a correction but price got to much buying support and Bulls pushed it higher. Could still be a lower high at 8950 but I am staying flat, at least for now. Volume is on the low side indicating this attempt could fail.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Bitcoin is still showing strength now, making higher lows. I think Bitcoin is just a tool the last 2 weeks for the alts, people getting in and out of Bitcoin because of the Alts. SO the price movement is not a natural one and there for we just can't see natural TA patterns lately. That's the main reason to why it's so difficult to predict what the price will do. I think many Alts are ready to make a correction soon, but i see allot of movements we saw months back. Like breaking a bearish wedge to the upside. That's probably FOMO at work. If Bitcoin keeps hanging around the 8600/9000 than we can assume the 9000 gets broken
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Looks like a small triangle that’s closing in now, so we should see a break out later today. Could be both ways! But up is a slightly aheadบันทึกช่วยจำ
Every asset, stocks, coins, commodities, currencies whatever, they don't always follow their trendlines (or support and resistances). Bitcoin however used to have allot of moments it DID just do that. But lately it's moving around not following any channel on the short time frame. like the chart below, showing a trend channel, dropping below it, making a nice bear flag and instead of testing the 8500 it just jumps back into the channel again so it can drop out of it again later.Now it is hanging above the support level of that triangle i mentioned earlier, indicating it wants to break the support. I am curious to see what it will do now.
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For the ones who don't understand what i am doing here, i have a few examples of what i do here. I try to predict certain patterns, that could possibly turn out that way, because i have seen so many charts in my life i have the ability to make some great calls about a pattern even before it started. But it's not to be a genius or to be right or whatever. No, it's to be prepared for a certain scenarios.Like this example i don't remember where i went long during that big rally in december, but i predicted this H&S even before the head was finished. This one worked out perfectly. I got out at the high and turned short at the high.
This example did not work out, was during that 7500/9000 range in February. I was mostly shorting it in this (confusing) period and when we finally broke the 9000 i knew i was wrong and i turned long.
Or this one that did work out perfectly again. Where i predicted that bear trap at the 6400 a ew weeks ago.
Most important thing is, it's not about being right or wrong, it's about making profits. And preparing yourself with enough possible scenarios and when you have the experience as well, you know which pattern at a certain moment is reliable and which is less.
Just like this H&S i have in primary chart i am not even talking about it. So why did i draw it?
I have showed that the 9000/9200 area is the biggest resistance (IMO) we have during the way up. So assuming i am right about that and price gets sold off there, what would happen than? It would drop back to the big support level around 8200 or maybe even 7800/7900. If prices does bounce from that level, what would be happening than? It would be making the right shoulder if the market will show weakness there and won't be able to get above the 8500.
I can keep on going for hours, but i won't. So this is not only for the critics, this is also for the fans. When i am certain of something, i will tell you, sometimes i give % of what i think will happen, sometimes i just show what COULD happen and sometimes i am just absolutely convinced of what will happen, but these moments only happen when volatility is high.
Last example, where i posted an update when i was convinced we would break the 10K downwards that day
And it was this update with this chart and with this comment it:
Comment: I almost farted from laughing so hard, that there are still people buying the 10.000 level thinking it will hold again LOL :)
So in summary, of course it's impossible to predict a pattern even before it happens, but if you have seen so many patterns and charts in almost 20 years, trust me, you have an edge :)
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It showing some weakness now, making a lower low on the short time frame. Breaking the 8600 will almost confirm a bigger correctional wave (at least in time)บันทึกช่วยจำ
Target of the h&s is almost reached, but don’t get to greedy. Targets can fall short but of course can also extend. I am so happy we have volatility again, can’t say it enough. Almost a month ago that we had moved like this :). Not at home yet, so I can’t update. Make a new analysis later today. Price has obviously stayed below the 10k, that big blue resistance area, which I said weeks ago, that below this level the bear market is still 100% in play. Even though with the strong bull rally, have to stick to that plan. It’s to easy to get trapped in all the emotions of this market. Anything above 8200 is still short term bullish and above 7500 also med term bullish.
But alts are taking hits now, so it was a good judgement call yesterday, when I said something else was going on since we made that rally from the 6k. These 8700/9000 levels should give support, so let’s wait and see what happens next. So far no bounces yet which is a weak signal
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